5697 Westphalia Rd · Mattituck, NY 11952

$2,250,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 247 Days on market

Built 2025 2.01 ac lot $506/sqft · 27% below area Est $3063k · 27% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

5697 Westphalia Road isn't just an address - it's the moment where modern architecture meets the North Fork's easy rhythm. Tucked at the end of a country road, on two lush acres in Mattituck, this newly built farmhouse balances clean-lined sophistication with a sense of calm that only the North Fork can provide. Surrounded by over 100 curated plantings and fresh sod, the cedar-shingled exterior feels quietly commanding. Step inside and the tone continues: 7 1/2-inch white oak floors, bold fixtures, and natural light streaming through. The layout flows with purpose - at the heart, a striking kitchen anchored by Carrara marble and Thermador appliances opens seamlessly to dining and living areas. Designer lighting, custom millwork, and a wood-burning fireplace create a backdrop that’s both refined and relaxed — perfect for year-round entertaining. The sunroom opens to a Gunite saltwater pool, private, heated and glimmering beneath the sky. Four bedrooms and five baths - including two serene primary suites - offer space to retreat. Downstairs, a finished lower level with 9-foot ceilings and private entrance invites possibility: guest quarters, gym, studio, or screening room. Outdoors, a detached pool house, outdoor shower, and fireplace create an effortless extension of living space. It's a home as refined as it is relaxed, surrounded by beaches, vineyards, and the flavor of the North Fork - from Love Lane's Village Cheese Shop, Lombardi's Love Lane Market to evenings at The Old Mill! Close enough to everything yet far enough from the daily grind.

Key facts

• 2.01 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.86M (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.63M (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.63M (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $16k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $68k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.98M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,629,153 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,062,843
• List price: $2,250,000
• Delta: -26.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
880 W Mill Rd	0.44mi	4/4.0	4,500 (+1%)	4mo	$1,235,000	$274	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-534,974
• Equity at exit: $335,482

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-684,551
• Equity at exit: $194,539

Cash invested: $630,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11952

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,799
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,812 /mo · $33,750/yr
• Insurance: −$938
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,421
• Net cashflow: $-2,679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $19,683

Max offer price $1,862,354

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,124	-5% $-1,901	+0% $-2,679	+5% $-3,456	+10% $-4,234
Rent	-10% $-3,966	-5% $-3,322	+0% $-2,679	+5% $-2,035	+10% $-1,392
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,546	-0.5pp $-2,107	base $-2,679	+0.5pp $-3,262	+1.0pp $-3,855

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $562,500
• Closing costs: $67,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
190 Jackson Lndg Mattituck, NY	5.0	5.5	4221	$20,000	$4.74	26d	1	0.35mi
1600 Westview Dr Mattituck, NY	3.0	3.0	3192	$5,500	$1.72	45d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 241 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 238 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,250,000 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 227 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,250,000 Active 226 DOM
16. 2025-10-17
    listed $2,250,000 Active 1581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1581 chars)

    5697 Westphalia Road isn't just an address - it's the moment where modern architecture meets the North Fork's easy rhythm. Tucked at the end of a country road, on two lush acres in Mattituck, this newly built farmhouse balances clean-lined sophistication with a sense of calm that only the North Fork can provide. Surrounded by over 100 curated plantings and fresh sod, the cedar-shingled exterior feels quietly commanding. Step inside and the tone continues: 7 1/2-inch white oak floors, bold fixtures, and natural light streaming through. The layout flows with purpose - at the heart, a striking kitchen anchored by Carrara marble and Thermador appliances opens seamlessly to dining and living areas. Designer lighting, custom millwork, and a wood-burning fireplace create a backdrop that’s both refined and relaxed — perfect for year-round entertaining. The sunroom opens to a Gunite saltwater pool, private, heated and glimmering beneath the sky. Four bedrooms and five baths - including two serene primary suites - offer space to retreat. Downstairs, a finished lower level with 9-foot ceilings and private entrance invites possibility: guest quarters, gym, studio, or screening room. Outdoors, a detached pool house, outdoor shower, and fireplace create an effortless extension of living space. It's a home as refined as it is relaxed, surrounded by beaches, vineyards, and the flavor of the North Fork - from Love Lane's Village Cheese Shop, Lombardi's Love Lane Market to evenings at The Old Mill! Close enough to everything yet far enough from the daily grind.

17. 2025-10-15
    historical $2,250,000 1581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1581 chars)

    5697 Westphalia Road isn't just an address - it's the moment where modern architecture meets the North Fork's easy rhythm. Tucked at the end of a country road, on two lush acres in Mattituck, this newly built farmhouse balances clean-lined sophistication with a sense of calm that only the North Fork can provide. Surrounded by over 100 curated plantings and fresh sod, the cedar-shingled exterior feels quietly commanding. Step inside and the tone continues: 7 1/2-inch white oak floors, bold fixtures, and natural light streaming through. The layout flows with purpose - at the heart, a striking kitchen anchored by Carrara marble and Thermador appliances opens seamlessly to dining and living areas. Designer lighting, custom millwork, and a wood-burning fireplace create a backdrop that’s both refined and relaxed — perfect for year-round entertaining. The sunroom opens to a Gunite saltwater pool, private, heated and glimmering beneath the sky. Four bedrooms and five baths - including two serene primary suites - offer space to retreat. Downstairs, a finished lower level with 9-foot ceilings and private entrance invites possibility: guest quarters, gym, studio, or screening room. Outdoors, a detached pool house, outdoor shower, and fireplace create an effortless extension of living space. It's a home as refined as it is relaxed, surrounded by beaches, vineyards, and the flavor of the North Fork - from Love Lane's Village Cheese Shop, Lombardi's Love Lane Market to evenings at The Old Mill! Close enough to everything yet far enough from the daily grind.

18. 2025-08-18
    historical
19. 2025-06-30
    listed $2,499,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $195,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$126,035
• − Property taxes: −$33,750
• − Insurance: −$11,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,640
• − Management: −$15,640
• − Depreciation: −$65,455
• Taxable loss: −$72,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17,345
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mattituck

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #8015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mattituck, NY
• City population: 4,749
• Population (ZIP): 4,749

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.04%
• Current HPI: 453.8895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-17 Listed $2,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Coming Soon $2,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Listed $2,499,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid