3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,064 sqft ·
Built 2001
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,356/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$471
Tax + insurance
−$53
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$285
Net cashflow
$547/mo
Annual
$6,563/yr
Cap rate
13.59%
Cash-on-cash
26.07%
DSCR
2.16
1% rule
1.51%
Cash to close
$25,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#148 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
Owensboro Independent (urban): math 27% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #100 of 165 in KY (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 226 units permitted in Daviess County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
Daviess County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $55k; list at $90k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.1% in Owensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7XD647FM6CXD33
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29