155 Cranberry Dr

Holiday Pocono, PA 18610

$435,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,898 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$647
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-292/mo
• Annual: $-3,504/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $121,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $340k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,558 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $173k; list at $435k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.1% in Holiday Pocono — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.