10891 Mahlon Price

Chance, MD 21821

$160,000A-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 533 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,958/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $564/mo
• Annual: $6,763/yr
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.10%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $564 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 533 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#427 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Deal Island School (math 24% / reading 15%, grade F, #350 of 860 statewide, top 41%, 96 students, 53% FRL); Somerset 6/7 Intermediate School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #170 of 225 statewide, top 77%, 396 students, 73% FRL); Washington Academy And High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #163 of 222 statewide, top 75%, 597 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $160k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 533 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.