10891 Mahlon Price · Chance, MD 21821

$160,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 533 Days on market

Built 1976 1.00 ac lot Est $210k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

CHARMING 3 BEDROOM RANCHER STEPS FROM THE BEACH! This delightful 3-bedroom, 1-bath rancher offers a blend of cozy comfort and coastal charm. Sitting on 1 acre, making it an ideal home or vacation retreat. Just a short stroll to the beach, you'll enjoy the soothing sounds of the ocean and breathtaking sunsets. A large backyard offers a serene escape with potential for outdoor dining, gardening, or adding a fire pit. Less than 5 minutes to the boat ramps and local beach where you can enjoy many activities beachcombing and picnicking by the shore to name a few. Check out the local museum, learn the magnificent history of Deal Island and join in watching the Skipjacks racing that happens annual

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Private septic tank; No municipal trash service; Electric service for heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Single-level living (all primary rooms on main level); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Building not winterized; Above-grade living space
• Exterior features: Personal pool; Shed and additional outbuilding; Not located in a federal flood zone; Outside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Good condition; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry with washer and dryer; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $564 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#427 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Deal Island School (math 24% / reading 15%, grade F, #350 of 860 statewide, top 41%, 96 students, 53% FRL); Somerset 6/7 Intermediate School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #170 of 225 statewide, top 77%, 396 students, 73% FRL); Washington Academy And High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #163 of 222 statewide, top 75%, 597 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 533 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $160k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 533 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.10%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,144
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10868 Mahlon Price Rd	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	904 (-14%)	18mo	$180,000	$199	51
23544 Deal Island Rd	0.48mi	3/1.5	975 (-8%)	21mo	$185,000	$190	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $122,991
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.45×
• Total profit: $333,869
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21821

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $564

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,245

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $654	-5% $609	+0% $564	+5% $518	+10% $473
Rent	-10% $409	-5% $486	+0% $564	+5% $641	+10% $718
Rate	-1.0pp $644	-0.5pp $604	base $564	+0.5pp $522	+1.0pp $480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $160,000 Pending 533 DOM
2. 2026-02-22
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-08-11
   price $160,000
4. 2025-05-09
   status Active
5. 2025-04-26
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2025-04-12
   status Active
7. 2025-04-05
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2025-02-26
   price $178,000
9. 2025-02-18
   status Active
10. 2025-01-31
    status Pending
11. 2024-09-16
    price $190,000
12. 2024-07-28
    listed $220,000 Active
13. 2024-07-07
    historical $220,000
14. 2023-07-26
    historical
15. 2023-03-14
    listed $199,000 Active
16. 2023-03-12
    historical
17. 2023-02-23
    listed $125,000 Active
18. 2010-06-08
    soldstatus $99,000
19. 2010-06-02
    soldstatus $99,000
20. 2010-04-24
    historical
21. 2010-04-05
    listed $99,000
22. 2000-02-16
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $930 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,337 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 43.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,054
• After-tax cash flow: $5,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Chance

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #24063

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chance, MD
• Population (ZIP): 736

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Polish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.66%
• Current HPI: 299.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+180.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-09 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-26 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-05 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $178,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-18 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-31 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-28 Listed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-07 Coming Soon $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-14 Listed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-23 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-08 Sold (MLS) $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-04-05 Listed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $930 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.