Willow Plan

Sebastian, FL 32958

$341,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,746/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,008
• Tax + insurance: −$638
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-476/mo
• Annual: $-5,714/yr
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.33%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $107,196

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $342k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-476 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (19.7% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $275k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in FL, #1,421 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D-.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sebastian Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 329 students, 72% FRL); Sebastian River Middle School (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 862 students, 65% FRL); Sebastian River High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,843 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,746/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 16% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.