Willow Plan · Sebastian, FL 32958

$343,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily · 135 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover The Willow - Practical and Spacious Family Living With over 2,000 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, The Willow is the perfect home for families of all sizes. The clean, minimalist exterior features a garage on the far right and a welcoming front door nearby. Choose from two distinct elevation options to suit your style. Step inside to a long entry hall, where a flexible room to your right can serve as an office, dining room, or whatever fits your lifestyle. Just down the hall is the first bedroom-ideal for guests or family. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen includes a walk-in pantry and a large island with a sink.

Key facts

• Flexible room
• Open-concept kitchen
• Laundry room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• FLEXIBLE ROOM
• DOUBLE-SINK BATHROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $343,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $387,939.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $344k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-583 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in FL, #1,421 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D-.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sebastian Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 329 students, 72% FRL); Sebastian River Middle School (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 862 students, 65% FRL); Sebastian River High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,843 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,656/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 16% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,609 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,939
• List price: $343,900
• Delta: -11.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
992 Seneca Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,017 (-2%)	7mo	$290,000	$144	74
958 Roseland Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,806 (-12%)	1mo	$382,990	$212	66
938 Riviera Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-11%)	6mo	$375,000	$205	60
707 Barber St	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-11%)	4mo	$380,000	$208	59
955 Riviera Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-10%)	1mo	$357,000	$194	58
729 Wentworth St	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,143 (+4%)	4mo	$399,990	$187	56
830 Cain St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-12%)	6mo	$320,000	$178	55
919 Landsdowne Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	1,854 (-10%)	2mo	$357,500	$193	54
626 Braddock St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-6%)	7mo	$250,910	$130	50
1043 Landsdowne Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,821 (-11%)	5mo	$366,000	$201	48
608 Lawson St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-11%)	6mo	$380,950	$208	46
689 Layport Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,761 (-14%)	2mo	$340,000	$193	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-91,049
• Equity at exit: $57,843

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-87,959
• Equity at exit: $33,542

Cash invested: $108,623 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 67 active · 38 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $382,900 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 117 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32958

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,656 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,034
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$485 /mo · $5,819/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-583

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,394

Max offer price $303,629

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-315	-5% $-449	+0% $-583	+5% $-717	+10% $-851
Rent	-10% $-792	-5% $-688	+0% $-583	+5% $-478	+10% $-373
Rate	-1.0pp $-387	-0.5pp $-484	base $-583	+0.5pp $-683	+1.0pp $-785

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,985
• Closing costs: $11,638
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
865 Beard Ave Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1934	$3,200	$1.65	10d	1	0.16mi
810 Jamaica Ave Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$3,000	$1.62	154d	1	0.29mi
974 Riviera Ave Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1799	$1,600	$0.89	10d	1	0.38mi
974 Riviera Ave Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1799	$1,600	$0.89	51d	1	0.38mi
1018 Landsdowne Dr Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,000	$1.15	51d	1	0.60mi
664 Vocelle Ave Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,200	$1.42	10d	1	0.75mi
1343 Shoreline Cir Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	2222	$3,650	$1.64	51d	1	0.76mi
486 Biscayne Ln Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1769	$2,250	$1.27	154d	1	0.81mi
1242 Laconia St Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,200	$1.42	41d	1	1.04mi
1242 Laconia St Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,200	$1.42	51d	1	1.04mi
832 Carnation Dr Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	51d	1	1.07mi
832 Carnation Dr Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	10d	1	1.07mi
926 Crown St Sebastian, FL	4.0	3.0	2020	$2,850	$1.41	1d	1	1.09mi
926 Crown St Sebastian, FL	4.0	3.0	2020	$2,850	$1.41	37d	1	1.09mi
1108 Coverbrook Ln Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,200	$1.33	38d	1	1.10mi
990 Genesee Ave Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1972	$3,000	$1.52	10d	1	1.15mi
462 Lloyd St Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,400	$1.53	162d	1	1.17mi
324 Seaside Ter Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,200	$1.27	51d	1	1.19mi
324 Seaside Ter Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	2322	$2,200	$0.95	154d	1	1.19mi
1192 Croquet Ln Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	2012	$2,640	$1.31	154d	1	1.23mi
632 Bayfront Ter Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,350	$1.25	154d	1	1.23mi
365 Fordham St Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1893	$2,031	$1.07	49d	1	1.30mi
351 Del Monte Rd Unit B Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,900	$1.34	162d	1	1.34mi
351 Del Monte Rd Unit B Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,900	$1.34	154d	1	1.34mi
425 Ash St Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	2153	$2,300	$1.07	10d	1	1.43mi
425 Ash St Sebastian, FL	3.0	2.0	2153	$2,300	$1.07	2d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveListing last modified: 2026-06-26
• Financial info: List price: $333,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Plan home — Willow planNew construction inventory: Plan
• Exterior features: Address: 843 Roseland Rd, Sebastian, FL 32958

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area totaling 2052 finished square feet

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $343,900 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $343,900 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $343,900 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $343,900 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $343,900 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $343,900 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $343,900 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $343,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $343,900 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $343,900 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $343,900 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $343,900 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $343,900 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $343,900 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $343,900 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $343,900 Active 119 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $343,900 Active 118 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $343,900 Active 117 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $343,900 Active 116 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $343,900 Active 115 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $343,900 Active 114 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $343,900 Active 113 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $343,900 Active 112 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $343,900 Active 111 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $343,900 Active 110 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $343,900 Active 109 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $343,900 Active 108 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $343,900 Active 107 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $343,900 Active 106 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $343,900 Active 105 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $343,900 Active 104 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $343,900 Active 103 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $343,900 Active 102 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $343,900 Active 101 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $343,900 Active 100 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $343,900 Active 99 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $343,900 Active 98 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    price $343,900 Active 97 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $341,900 Active 97 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $341,900 Active 96 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $341,900 Active 95 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $341,900 Active 94 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $341,900 Active 93 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $341,900 Active 92 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $341,900 Active 91 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $341,900 Active 90 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $341,900 Active 89 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $341,900 Active 88 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $341,900 Active 86 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $341,900 Active 84 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,731
• − Property taxes: −$5,819
• − Insurance: −$1,940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,550
• − Management: −$2,550
• − Depreciation: −$11,285
• Taxable loss: −$14,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,360
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious and well-maintained interior with a clean and tidy exterior. The property is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for rental properties. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to modern fixtures can enhance the bathroom's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out carpet with hardwood or tile can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Lighting upgrades — Upgrading to energy-efficient LED lighting can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Adding smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for younger buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing exterior can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sebastian Elementary School F FL #1,513/2,144 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Sebastian River Middle School D FL #310/571 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Sebastian River High School F FL #340/667 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Sebastian

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #1421

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sebastian, FL
• County: Indian River County · 165,104 people
• City population: 30,023
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,023
• Household income: $66,840
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.85%
• Current HPI: 330.1691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.22%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveListing last modified: 2026-06-26
• Financial info: List price: $333,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Plan home — Willow planNew construction inventory: Plan
• Exterior features: Address: 843 Roseland Rd, Sebastian, FL 32958

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area totaling 2052 finished square feet