38185 Chelsey St

Fritz Creek, AK 99603

$250,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 384 sqft · Built 1976 · Other · Active · 501 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,253/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-491/mo
• Annual: $-5,886/yr
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.41%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-491 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (49.9% below list).
• It's been on market 501 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (49.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#77 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 501 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.