38185 Chelsey St · Fritz Creek, AK 99603

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 384 sqft · Other public records · 501 Days on market

Built 1976 2.05 ac lot $651/sqft · 80% above area Est $465k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

East End Income Property, 3 Residential Units with a Potential monthly income of 3K. Two Acres of land with Glacier and Mountain Views. Two Cabins and a mobile home recently Renovated. The Two Cabins currently have tenants with leases until August. Each Residence has its own Utilities. The property has Two Driveways and Multiple Ways to Profit! Located 9.5 miles from Homer near Kachemak Bay! The cabin and mobile home have cisterns for the water source and compostable toilets. The seller has recently purchased a new 500 gallon fuel tank for the dry cabin. The main cabin has a new heater and water pump installed this year.

Key facts

• Two driveways
• Two acres of land
• Recently renovated

Tags

• TWO ACRES OF LAND
• GLACIER AND MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• OWN UTILITIES
• TWO DRIVEWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-491 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (49.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (49.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#77 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 501 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $125,258 (49.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 501 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.41%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,768
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -46.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-71,884
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-103,364
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99603

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 16.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $778/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $163,351

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 501 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 500 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 499 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 498 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 497 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 495 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $250,000 Active 494 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 491 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 490 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 489 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 488 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 485 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 484 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 483 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 482 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 481 DOM
17. 2025-02-03
    listed $250,000 Active 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    East End Income Property, 3 Residential Units with a Potential monthly income of 3K. Two Acres of land with Glacier and Mountain Views. Two Cabins and a mobile home recently Renovated. The Two Cabins currently have tenants with leases until August. Each Residence has its own Utilities. The property has Two Driveways and Multiple Ways to Profit! Located 9.5 miles from Homer near Kachemak Bay! The cabin and mobile home have cisterns for the water source and compostable toilets. The seller has recently purchased a new 500 gallon fuel tank for the dry cabin. The main cabin has a new heater and water pump installed this year.

18. 2020-12-29
    status Pending
19. 2020-11-10
    listed $115,000 Active
20. 2020-08-12
    status Pending
21. 2020-08-03
    listed $105,000 Active
22. 2019-11-12
    listed $109,000 Active
23. 2013-09-25
    listed $84,000
24. 1996-07-03
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,877 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,098/yr (+$92/mo · 141.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$778
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$10,679
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,563
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Fritz Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #18565

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fritz Creek, AK
• Population (ZIP): 11,557

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 10% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.25%
• Current HPI: 204.3313
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+455.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-03 Listed $250,000 AKMLS
• 2020-12-29 Pending — AKMLS
• 2020-11-10 Listed $115,000 AKMLS
• 2020-08-12 Pending — AKMLS
• 2020-08-03 Listed $105,000 AKMLS
• 2019-11-12 Listed $109,000 AKMLS
• 2013-09-25 Listed $84,000 AKMLS
• 1996-07-03 Listed $45,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $778 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.