4851 W Arivaca Rd

Arivaca Junction, AZ 85645

$224,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,536/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,305/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $62,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $224k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (31.4% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#146 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sahuarita Unified District (4411) (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #63 of 249 in AZ (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sopori Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #871 of 1,109 statewide, top 80%, 109 students, 77% FRL); Sahuarita Middle School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #65 of 218 statewide, top 30%, 579 students, 40% FRL); Sahuarita High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #212 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 1,146 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 39% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sahuarita Unified District (4411) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $224k implies a 623% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.