4851 W Arivaca Rd · Arivaca Junction, AZ 85645

$224,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2001 1.11 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover peaceful desert living with space, privacy, and endless potential. Nestled on 1.1 acres and set back from the road, this well-maintained property offers a quiet setting surrounded by natural beauty. This light and inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home welcomes you with an open great room and kitchen concept, enhanced by picture windows, elevated ceilings, and inset lighting that create a bright, airy feel throughout. The layout is thoughtfully designed, with the spacious owner's suite tucked to one side, featuring a private bath and an extended bonus room that is perfect for a home office, hobby space, or quiet retreat. On the opposite side, two additional bedrooms and a full bath provide comfort and flexibility. Enjoy Arizona's stunning sunrises and - sunsets from your front screened-in porch or the expansive back deck, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. The home features laminate flooring throughout, has been well cared for, and includes all appliances, including a newer refrigerator. A ramp provides added accessibility and ease of entry. Approximately half of the acreage is fenced, while the back portion opens to a beautiful riparian area, creating a peaceful and unique natural setting. Per the seller, there may be an opportunity to place a second home on the property, offering additional flexibility for multigenerational living or future use. Buyers are encouraged to verify with Pima County. Conveniently located near a local mini market and with easy access to I-19, this property offers the perfect balance of rural charm and everyday convenience, with nearby access to Green Valley, Tubac, and Tucson. This is more than a home; it is space, versatility, and a lifestyle ready to be enjoyed.

Key facts

• 1.1 acres
• Picture windows
• Inset lighting

Tags

• 1.1 ACRES
• OPEN GREAT ROOM
• KITCHEN CONCEPT
• PICTURE WINDOWS
• ELEVATED CEILINGS
• INSET LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#146 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sahuarita Unified District (4411) (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #63 of 249 in AZ (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sopori Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #871 of 1,109 statewide, top 80%, 109 students, 77% FRL); Sahuarita Middle School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #65 of 218 statewide, top 30%, 579 students, 40% FRL); Sahuarita High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #212 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 1,146 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 39% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sahuarita Unified District (4411) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $224k implies a 623% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,618 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,293
• Equity at exit: $84,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $45,456
• Equity at exit: $117,855

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85645

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,674

Max offer price $204,796

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-45	+0% $-109	+5% $-172	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-169	+0% $-109	+5% $-48	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $4	-0.5pp $-52	base $-109	+0.5pp $-167	+1.0pp $-226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $224,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $224,000 Active 1761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1761 chars)

    Discover peaceful desert living with space, privacy, and endless potential. Nestled on 1.1 acres and set back from the road, this well-maintained property offers a quiet setting surrounded by natural beauty. This light and inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home welcomes you with an open great room and kitchen concept, enhanced by picture windows, elevated ceilings, and inset lighting that create a bright, airy feel throughout. The layout is thoughtfully designed, with the spacious owner's suite tucked to one side, featuring a private bath and an extended bonus room that is perfect for a home office, hobby space, or quiet retreat. On the opposite side, two additional bedrooms and a full bath provide comfort and flexibility. Enjoy Arizona's stunning sunrises and - sunsets from your front screened-in porch or the expansive back deck, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. The home features laminate flooring throughout, has been well cared for, and includes all appliances, including a newer refrigerator. A ramp provides added accessibility and ease of entry. Approximately half of the acreage is fenced, while the back portion opens to a beautiful riparian area, creating a peaceful and unique natural setting. Per the seller, there may be an opportunity to place a second home on the property, offering additional flexibility for multigenerational living or future use. Buyers are encouraged to verify with Pima County. Conveniently located near a local mini market and with easy access to I-19, this property offers the perfect balance of rural charm and everyday convenience, with nearby access to Green Valley, Tubac, and Tucson. This is more than a home; it is space, versatility, and a lifestyle ready to be enjoyed.

18. 2022-05-16
    historical
19. 2022-05-16
    historical
20. 2022-02-21
    status Active
21. 2022-02-21
    status Active
22. 2022-02-17
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
23. 2022-02-17
    historical Active Contingent
24. 2022-02-04
    listed $229,000 Active
25. 2022-02-04
    listed $229,000 Active
26. 2021-11-22
    historical
27. 2021-11-12
    listed $221,000 Active
28. 2002-06-20
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,478 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$827/yr (+$69/mo · 127.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable loss: −$5,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,284
• After-tax cash flow: $-20/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sahuarita Unified District (4411)
• NCES district ID: 0407300
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $63,564
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5072
• State rank: #63 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arivaca Junction

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #17219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arivaca Junction, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,317

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 44% Two or more races 33% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Current HPI: 223.2301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+622.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $224,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-05-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-05-16 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2022-02-21 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-02-21 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2022-02-17 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-02-17 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-02-04 Listed $229,000 ARMLS
• 2022-02-04 Listed $229,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-11-22 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2021-11-12 Listed $221,000 MLSSAZ
• 2002-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $651 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.