651 Tilleys Ln

Ezel, KY 40387

$75,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Contingent · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $146/mo
• Annual: $1,753/yr
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.35%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($841 rent vs $75k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#375 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Morgan County (rural): math 14% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #150 of 165 in KY (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ezel Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 120 students, 64% FRL); Morgan County Middle School (math 14% / reading 35%, grade F, #189 of 217 statewide, top 89%, 413 students, 67% FRL); Morgan County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 598 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $75k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.4% in Ezel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant rust and potential water damage
• Major: exterior siding — Severe weathering and peeling paint
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of maintenance