651 Tilleys Ln · Ezel, KY 40387

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Fair condition 0.60 ac lot $99/sqft · 44% below area Est $135k · 44% under ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED! Buyer wants an offer! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin is situated on a little over half acre. This would make a great vacation home or get away with close access to Lake. Buyer to verify schools, septic and tax rate.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• A-frame cabin
• 0.6 acre lot

Tags

• A-FRAME CABIN
• PRIVATE COVERED BALCONY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• MINUTES FROM CAVE RUN LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Menifee County; Contingent status

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Cabin; 760 total building area
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built with wood construction materials
• Exterior features: Secluded lot with many trees; Wooded setting; Rural, trees/woods and mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($841 rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.4% in Ezel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#375 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Morgan County (rural): math 14% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #150 of 165 in KY (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ezel Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 120 students, 64% FRL); Morgan County Middle School (math 14% / reading 35%, grade F, #189 of 217 statewide, top 89%, 413 students, 67% FRL); Morgan County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 598 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morgan County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $75k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.35%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,518
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -47.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
651 Tillys Ln	0.02mi	2/1.0	760 (0%)	15mo	$145,000	$191	87
241 Canyon Ridge Rd	0.40mi	2/1.5	768 (+1%)	1mo	$205,000	$267	77
85 Jacks Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0	784 (+3%)	15mo	$145,000	$185	66
10 Barnloop Rd	0.43mi	2/1.0	728 (-4%)	14mo	$134,000	$184	61
104 Heather Ln	0.15mi	2/1.0	700 (-8%)	23mo	$75,000	$107	61
556 Morganview Rd	0.28mi	2/1.0	850 (+12%)	8mo	$123,000	$145	60
144 Fern Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0	870 (+14%)	2mo	$152,000	$175	53
66 Fern Drive Dr	0.52mi	2/1.5	784 (+3%)	21mo	$125,000	$159	51
148 Stephen Rd	0.48mi	2/1.0	846 (+11%)	16mo	$165,000	$195	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-2,834
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $9,566
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40387

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $172	+0% $146	+5% $120	+10% $94
Rent	-10% $80	-5% $113	+0% $146	+5% $179	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $165	base $146	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $75,000 Contingent 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $75,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   REDUCED! Buyer wants an offer! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin is situated on a little over half acre. This would make a great vacation home or get away with close access to Lake. Buyer to verify schools, septic and tax rate.

5. 2026-05-01
   price $71,100 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   REDUCED! Buyer wants an offer! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin is situated on a little over half acre. This would make a great vacation home or get away with close access to Lake. Buyer to verify schools, septic and tax rate.

6. 2026-03-14
   price $79,000 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   REDUCED! Buyer wants an offer! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin is situated on a little over half acre. This would make a great vacation home or get away with close access to Lake. Buyer to verify schools, septic and tax rate.

7. 2026-02-20
   price $92,800 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   REDUCED! Buyer wants an offer! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin is situated on a little over half acre. This would make a great vacation home or get away with close access to Lake. Buyer to verify schools, septic and tax rate.

8. 2026-01-12
   listed $116,000 Active 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   REDUCED! Buyer wants an offer! This 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin is situated on a little over half acre. This would make a great vacation home or get away with close access to Lake. Buyer to verify schools, septic and tax rate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$807
• − Management: −$807
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $595
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$143
• After-tax cash flow: $1,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This cabin requires moderate renovations, focusing on the exterior, roof, and landscaping to significantly improve its curb appeal and property value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant rust and potential water damage
• Major exterior siding — Severe weathering and peeling paint
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and roof — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Resale Replace dated kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and attracts buyers
• Resale Update bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathroom and attracts buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant rust and potential water damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Severe weathering and peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation and lack of maintenance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and roof — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Replace dated kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and attracts buyers ↑
• Resale Update bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathroom and attracts buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan County
• NCES district ID: 2104290
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $31,371
• Composite: 19.78/100
• National rank: #8704
• State rank: #150 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ezel

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #17739

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,805

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,632 people
• By 2030: 12,211 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 11,408 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 10,612 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 8,790 · -30.4%
• By 2100: 6,944 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 17.5% · R 81.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+56.4 2016: R+55.0 2012: R+36.9 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.58%
• Current HPI: 215.8197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-35.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-21 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listed $75,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $50,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $71,100 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $79,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $92,800 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $116,000 ImagineMLS