74 Ranchito Ct

Larkfield-Wikiup, CA 95403

$99,900B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 206 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,029/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $912/mo
• Annual: $10,949/yr
• Cap rate: 17.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.14%
• DSCR: 2.74
• 1% rule: 2.03%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $912 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mark West Elementary (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #671 of 1,571 statewide, top 44%, 397 students, 47% FRL); Santa Rosa Middle (466 students, 53% FRL); Santa Rosa High (1,682 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 22% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 2.1% in Larkfield-Wikiup — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.