74 Ranchito Ct · Larkfield-Wikiup, CA 95403

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured · 206 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $124k · 20% under ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Reduced ... Reduced ...Great first home.....Remodeled and ready to go stackable laundry is being added now.has a yard to enjoy when the rain stops... Close to freeway, Movies, Hospitals, Shopping etc.....Cute Small All age Park.. space rent in $1000.00..

Key facts

• Updated mobile home
• Large refrigerator
• Newer full gas range

Tags

• UPDATED MOBILE HOME
• LARGE FRONT DECK
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• NEWER FULL GAS RANGE
• LARGE REFRIGERATOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,084
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community; Located in Mark West Estates Mobile Home Park

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Internet available; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (single wide); Skyline manufacturer; Aluminum skirt
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Deck attached to living room
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer/dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $912 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 2.1% in Larkfield-Wikiup — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mark West Elementary (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #671 of 1,571 statewide, top 44%, 397 students, 47% FRL); Santa Rosa Middle (466 students, 53% FRL); Santa Rosa High (1,682 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 22% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.14%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,176
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5379 Old Redwood Hwy Hwy #16	0.19mi	2/1.0 (+1)	643 (+3%)	17mo	$130,000	$202	67
115 Colonial Park Dr	0.39mi	1/1.0	560 (-10%)	1mo	$75,000	$134	64
54 Ellie Dr	0.57mi	1/1.0	635 (+2%)	10mo	$149,000	$235	63
48 Colonial Park Dr	0.34mi	1/1.0	700 (+12%)	11mo	$114,000	$163	55
61 Ellie Dr	0.61mi	1/1.0	648 (+4%)	18mo	$90,000	$139	50
65 Arthur Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (+1)	710 (+14%)	11mo	$150,000	$211	32
69 Arthur Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	702 (+12%)	18mo	$139,500	$199	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $36,201
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $84,197
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95403

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $912

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $981	-5% $947	+0% $912	+5% $878	+10% $843
Rent	-10% $752	-5% $832	+0% $912	+5% $993	+10% $1,073
Rate	-1.0pp $963	-0.5pp $938	base $912	+0.5pp $887	+1.0pp $860

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5222 Fulton Rd Unit 12 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	620	$1,950	$3.15	15d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $99,900 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 185 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 184 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $105,000
18. 2026-03-30
    price $109,900
19. 2026-03-18
    price $112,900
20. 2026-02-21
    price $114,900
21. 2026-02-12
    price $119,900
22. 2026-01-24
    price $121,900
23. 2025-11-27
    listed $124,900 Active
24. 2023-04-21
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Reduced ... Reduced ...Great first home.....Remodeled and ready to go stackable laundry is being added now.has a yard to enjoy when the rain stops... Close to freeway, Movies, Hospitals, Shopping etc.....Cute Small All age Park.. space rent in $1000.00..

25. 2023-04-17
    status Pending 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Reduced ... Reduced ...Great first home.....Remodeled and ready to go stackable laundry is being added now.has a yard to enjoy when the rain stops... Close to freeway, Movies, Hospitals, Shopping etc.....Cute Small All age Park.. space rent in $1000.00..

26. 2023-04-04
    historical Contingent (Show) 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Reduced ... Reduced ...Great first home.....Remodeled and ready to go stackable laundry is being added now.has a yard to enjoy when the rain stops... Close to freeway, Movies, Hospitals, Shopping etc.....Cute Small All age Park.. space rent in $1000.00..

27. 2023-03-18
    price $129,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Reduced ... Reduced ...Great first home.....Remodeled and ready to go stackable laundry is being added now.has a yard to enjoy when the rain stops... Close to freeway, Movies, Hospitals, Shopping etc.....Cute Small All age Park.. space rent in $1000.00..

28. 2023-03-13
    listed $155,000 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Reduced ... Reduced ...Great first home.....Remodeled and ready to go stackable laundry is being added now.has a yard to enjoy when the rain stops... Close to freeway, Movies, Hospitals, Shopping etc.....Cute Small All age Park.. space rent in $1000.00..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $9,951
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,388
• After-tax cash flow: $8,561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Larkfield-Wikiup

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Larkfield-Wikiup, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 45,570
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,806
• Household income: $98,191
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 13% Asian 5% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -679.94%
• Current HPI: 254.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-32.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $105,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $109,900 BAREIS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $112,900 BAREIS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $114,900 BAREIS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $119,900 BAREIS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $121,900 BAREIS
• 2025-11-27 Listed $124,900 BAREIS
• 2023-04-21 Sold (MLS) $120,000 BAREIS
• 2023-04-17 Pending — BAREIS
• 2023-04-04 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2023-03-18 Price Changed $129,000 BAREIS
• 2023-03-13 Listed $155,000 BAREIS