2515 Hogan Rd

East Point, GA 30344

$480,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,796 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,216/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax + insurance: −$437
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-1,203/mo
• Annual: $-14,441/yr
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.75%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $134,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $480k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (44.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (53.8% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (53.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#72 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Amana Academy School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #264 of 1,228 statewide, top 23%, 731 students, 30% FRL, charter); Paul D. West Middle School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #381 of 470 statewide, top 82%, 803 students, 100% FRL); Tri-Cities High School (math 5% / reading 30%, grade F, #264 of 424 statewide, top 63%, 1,483 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $122k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $480k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 5.1% in East Point — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.