8160 Ethan Ave

Easton, MD 21601

$388,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,906/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,035
• Tax + insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-836/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $108,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $388k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-836/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $376k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $291k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#154 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime D.
• Talbot County Public Schools (town): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #12 of 24 in MD (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 158 units permitted in Talbot County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Talbot County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $388k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Easton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.