1907 Bellville Cir

Lincoln, NE 68521

$40,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,570/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$712
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $294/mo
• Annual: $3,527/yr
• Cap rate: 15.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.49%
• DSCR: 2.40
• 1% rule: 3.93%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#5 in NE, #545 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Lincoln Public Schools (urban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #59 of 111 in NE (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Campbell Elementary School (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #387 of 502 statewide, top 77%, 615 students, 72% FRL); Goodrich Middle School (math 38% / reading 36%, grade F, #99 of 128 statewide, top 79%, 877 students, 78% FRL); North Star High School (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #208 of 261 statewide, top 86%, 2,072 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 37% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lincoln Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 45% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,940 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (895 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.0% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.