1907 Bellville Cir · Lincoln, NE 68521

$40,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 74 Days on market

Built 1977 1,307 sqft lot $29/sqft · 20% below area Est $50k · 20% under $712/mo HOA · 45% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Mark IV Mobile Home Park! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is tucked away in a private cul-de-sac, offering both comfort and privacy. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept kitchen and living area with ample storage throughout. The unfinished space just beyond the main living area provides an excellent opportunity to expand, offering potential for additional finished square footage to fit your needs. Outside, enjoy a fenced yard, private patio, and storage shed. The property also includes two dedicated parking spaces, as well as a washer, dryer, and refrigerator. Conveniently located just 10 minutes from downtown Lincoln!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Open-concept kitchen
• Private patio

Tags

• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FENCED YARD
• PRIVATE PATIO
• STORAGE SHED
• DEDICATED PARKING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.1% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#5 in NE, #545 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Lincoln Public Schools (urban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #59 of 111 in NE (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Campbell Elementary School (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #387 of 502 statewide, top 77%, 615 students, 72% FRL); Goodrich Middle School (math 38% / reading 36%, grade F, #99 of 128 statewide, top 79%, 877 students, 78% FRL); North Star High School (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #208 of 261 statewide, top 86%, 2,072 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 37% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lincoln Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,940 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (895 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 45% of rent.

Recommended offer $37,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.49%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,744
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -19.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4239 Bellville Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	3mo	$47,500	$35	86
4132 N 20th St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-5%)	24mo	$75,000	$57	67
1908 Northville Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	20mo	$56,000	$42	66
4024 N 20th St	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-8%)	11mo	$58,000	$45	66
2010 Northville Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+11%)	23mo	$49,000	$31	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $14,335
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $45,318
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68521

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$8 /mo · $99/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$712
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $305	+0% $294	+5% $283	+10% $271
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $232	+0% $294	+5% $356	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $304	base $294	+0.5pp $284	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1501 Superior St Lincoln, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,211	$1.48	15d	11	0.39mi
1615 Old Glory Rd Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.5	1564	$1,800	$1.15	45d	1	0.40mi
4800 N 15th St Unit 3-307 Lincoln, NE	2.0	2.0	950	$1,225	$1.29	15d	1	0.52mi
4800 N 15th St Unit 4-303 Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	45d	1	0.52mi
4800 N 15th St Unit 4-LL07 Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	22d	1	0.52mi
4800 N 15th St Unit 3-211 Lincoln, NE	2.0	2.0	950	$1,225	$1.29	45d	1	0.52mi
1151 Elba Ave Lincoln, NE	3.0	1.5	1443	$1,695	$1.17	45d	1	0.55mi
1431 Hilltop Rd Lincoln, NE	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,395	$1.33	15d	1	0.58mi
4420 N 7th St Lincoln, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,092	$1.24	15d	17	0.80mi
3201 N 12th St Lincoln, NE	3.0	1.0	928	$1,250	$1.35	15d	1	0.80mi
1205 Adams St Lincoln, NE	2.0	1.0	875	$1,350	$1.54	45d	1	0.87mi
3101 N Hill Rd Lincoln, NE	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	944	$1,449	$1.53	15d	16	1.18mi
4911 N 32nd St Lincoln, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,290	$1.45	15d	23	1.18mi
North Pointe Villas Lincoln, NE	3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,266	$2.22	15d	25	1.22mi
5404 Folkways Pl Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,000	$1.19	22d	1	1.34mi
2635 N 5th St Unit 2635 Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,595	$1.50	45d	1	1.41mi
2636 N 4th St Unit 2636 Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,595	$1.50	45d	1	1.43mi
4441 N 1st St Lincoln, NE	3.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,780	$2.09	15d	39	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $712 · $8,544/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $40,000 New 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Welcome to Mark IV Mobile Home Park! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is tucked away in a private cul-de-sac, offering both comfort and privacy. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept kitchen and living area with ample storage throughout. The unfinished space just beyond the main living area provides an excellent opportunity to expand, offering potential for additional finished square footage to fit your needs. Outside, enjoy a fenced yard, private patio, and storage shed. The property also includes two dedicated parking spaces, as well as a washer, dryer, and refrigerator. Conveniently located just 10 minutes from downtown Lincoln!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $99 · $8/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $692 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$593/yr (+$49/mo · 599.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$99
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − HOA: −$8,544
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $3,582
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$860
• After-tax cash flow: $2,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3172840
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,273
• Composite: 44.05/100
• National rank: #2880
• State rank: #59 of 111 in NE

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #545

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NE
• County: Lancaster County · 291,509 people
• City population: 291,509
• Metro: Lincoln, NE
• Population (ZIP): 37,050
• Household income: $67,483
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1500.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 352,806 people
• By 2030: 377,899 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 428,582 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 483,103 · +36.9%
• By 2075: 632,390 · +79.2%
• By 2100: 759,513 · +115.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 8% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Arab 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Vietnam, Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 9% Vietnamese 6% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.1% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 5.0pp · 2024: 4.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.3 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+0.1 2012: R+1.0 2008: D+5.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.30%
• Current HPI: 239.8394
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Lincoln, NE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $40,000 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $99 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.