815 Long Leaf Cir

Brandon, MS 39042

$334,999D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,426/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-277/mo
• Annual: $-3,326/yr
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.55%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $93,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $243k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rouse Elementary (797 students, 100% FRL); Brandon Middle School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade B, #11 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,193 students, 100% FRL); Brandon High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #27 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 1,648 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.