815 Long Leaf Cir · Brandon, MS 39042

$334,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2022 7,405 sqft lot $167/sqft · 10% below area Est $373k · 10% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Craftsman-style 4/3 in a desirable location featuring a fenced backyard and gutters already installed. Enjoy a comfortable layout with plenty of space and a setting that's convenient to shopping, dining, and everyday needs.

Key facts

• Desirable location
• Gutters installed
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• GUTTERS INSTALLED
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rouse Elementary (797 students, 100% FRL); Brandon Middle School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade B, #11 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,193 students, 100% FRL); Brandon High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #27 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 1,648 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,573 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.55%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,285
• List price: $334,999
• Delta: -10.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 Fusion St	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,000 (0%)	1mo	$400,000	$200	85
512 Fusion St	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,000 (0%)	1mo	$406,600	$203	82
615 Cobalt Way	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,181 (+9%)	0mo	$427,500	$196	79
609 Cobalt Way	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (-7%)	1mo	$375,000	$201	70
306 Toulon St	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+2%)	2mo	$355,000	$174	66
405 Elen Ct	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,212 (+11%)	1mo	$389,900	$176	55
410 Hyde Park Cv	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (-4%)	2mo	$304,999	$158	54
103 Hyde Park Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (-4%)	2mo	$304,999	$158	52
107 Hyde Park Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (-4%)	4mo	$319,999	$166	51
117 Busick Well Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,865 (-7%)	4mo	$360,000	$193	50
105 E Sunset	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,700 (-15%)	3mo	$129,900	$76	47
113 Hyde Park Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-14%)	1mo	$279,999	$162	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-61,476
• Equity at exit: $49,949

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-29,501
• Equity at exit: $28,965

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,426 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,217/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,777

Max offer price $286,039

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-182	+0% $-277	+5% $-372	+10% $-467
Rent	-10% $-469	-5% $-373	+0% $-277	+5% $-181	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-108	-0.5pp $-192	base $-277	+0.5pp $-364	+1.0pp $-452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Rollingwood Dr Brandon, MS	4.0	3.0	2613	$2,223	$0.85	25d	1	0.64mi
114 Fox Meadow Dr Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	15d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $334,999 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,999 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,999 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,999 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,999 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $334,999 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,999 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,999 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,999 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,999 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,999 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,999 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,999 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,999 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,999 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,999 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    listed $339,999 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Charming Craftsman-style 4/3 in a desirable location featuring a fenced backyard and gutters already installed. Enjoy a comfortable layout with plenty of space and a setting that's convenient to shopping, dining, and everyday needs.

18. 2025-03-12
    historical $2,600
19. 2025-02-25
    price $2,600
20. 2025-02-11
    price $2,700
21. 2025-01-17
    listed $2,800
22. 2025-01-13
    historical
23. 2024-11-18
    listed $345,000 Active
24. 2024-11-14
    historical
25. 2024-10-21
    price $345,000
26. 2024-08-06
    price $349,900
27. 2024-07-28
    listed $350,000 Active
28. 2023-12-07
    historical
29. 2023-09-25
    price $344,999
30. 2023-08-25
    soldstatus
31. 2023-08-16
    listed $349,999 Active
32. 2022-03-18
    soldstatus Closed
33. 2022-02-07
    status Pending
34. 2022-02-04
    price $329,999
35. 2022-01-03
    price $324,999
36. 2021-07-30
    listed $320,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,217 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,217 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$3,217
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,329
• − Management: −$2,329
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$9,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,232
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+5.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $339,999 MLSU
• 2025-03-12 Rental Removed $2,600 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $2,600 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $2,700 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-17 Listed for Rent $2,800 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-13 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-11-18 Listed $345,000 MLSU
• 2024-11-14 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $345,000 MLSU
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $349,900 MLSU
• 2024-07-28 Listed $350,000 MLSU
• 2023-12-07 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-09-25 Price Changed $344,999 MLSU
• 2023-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-16 Listed $349,999 MLSU
• 2022-03-18 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-02-07 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-02-04 Price Changed $329,999 MLSU
• 2022-01-03 Price Changed $324,999 MLSU
• 2021-07-30 Listed $320,999 MLSU

Property tax history

+69.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,217 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.