610 Kenwick Cir #205

Casselberry, FL 32707

$149,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,126 sqft · Built 1986 · Condo · Pending · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,751/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$419
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-863/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.07%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-863/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (8.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#314 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Casselberry Elementary School (math 68% / reading 65%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 766 students, 70% FRL); South Seminole Middle School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 995 students, 69% FRL); Lake Howell High School (math 36% / reading 49%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 2,205 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 38% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.1% in Casselberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?