2415 State Highway 30a

Johnstown, NY 12068

$189,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Active · 188 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,101/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$299
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-420/mo
• Annual: $-5,043/yr
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.53%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (39.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (41.8% below list).
• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in NY, #2,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D-, amenities D-.
• Fonda-Fultonville Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #228 of 590 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.