2415 State Highway 30a · Johnstown, NY 12068

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1880 0.92 ac lot $181/sqft · at area comps Est $241k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This place isn't your standard 2-bedroom setup. The kitchen and main living area sit upstairs, giving the space a lighter, more open feel, while the bedrooms below stay naturally cooler and quieter. From the lower level, you can step right out onto one of the two back decks and look over the acre of yard, the firepit, and the treeline behind the house. Inside, the knotty pine walls and the river-table countertop give the home its own personality, and the third-floor loft adds a little extra space that can go in a lot of directions, such as an office, studio, or just a spot to unwind. The two-car garage handles the storage, projects, and winter gear without a problem. All of this sits in the Fonda school district and comes in at 1,285 sq ft, with a central location that keeps daily routines simple.

Key facts

• Firepit
• Knotty pine walls
• Two back decks

Tags

• KNOTTY PINE WALLS
• RIVER-TABLE COUNTERTOP
• THIRD-FLOOR LOFT
• TWO BACK DECKS
• ACRE OF YARD
• FIREPIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (39.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (41.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in NY, #2,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D-, amenities D-.
• Fonda-Fultonville Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #228 of 590 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,081 (41.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.53%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,529
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -21.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $17,782
• Equity at exit: $108,143

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $76,490
• Equity at exit: $187,505

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12068

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,640/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $114,768

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-03-28
    price $189,000 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    This place isn't your standard 2-bedroom setup. The kitchen and main living area sit upstairs, giving the space a lighter, more open feel, while the bedrooms below stay naturally cooler and quieter. From the lower level, you can step right out onto one of the two back decks and look over the acre of yard, the firepit, and the treeline behind the house. Inside, the knotty pine walls and the river-table countertop give the home its own personality, and the third-floor loft adds a little extra space that can go in a lot of directions, such as an office, studio, or just a spot to unwind. The two-car garage handles the storage, projects, and winter gear without a problem. All of this sits in the Fonda school district and comes in at 1,285 sq ft, with a central location that keeps daily routines simple.

16. 2025-12-12
    listed $199,000 Active 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    This place isn't your standard 2-bedroom setup. The kitchen and main living area sit upstairs, giving the space a lighter, more open feel, while the bedrooms below stay naturally cooler and quieter. From the lower level, you can step right out onto one of the two back decks and look over the acre of yard, the firepit, and the treeline behind the house. Inside, the knotty pine walls and the river-table countertop give the home its own personality, and the third-floor loft adds a little extra space that can go in a lot of directions, such as an office, studio, or just a spot to unwind. The two-car garage handles the storage, projects, and winter gear without a problem. All of this sits in the Fonda school district and comes in at 1,285 sq ft, with a central location that keeps daily routines simple.

17. 2024-11-24
    historical $1,500
18. 2024-11-09
    listed $1,500
19. 2023-10-04
    soldstatus $179,900
20. 2019-06-28
    soldstatus $9,000 Closed (Final Sale) 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Fix and save! This home is just waiting for your imagination. It features a large open space on both the upper and lower floors, so you can configure it however you want. Large bath upstairs. The large lot backs up to a creek and features a two car garage. Lots of potential with this one! Convenient access to the thruway.

21. 2019-04-11
    status Pend (Under Cntr) 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Fix and save! This home is just waiting for your imagination. It features a large open space on both the upper and lower floors, so you can configure it however you want. Large bath upstairs. The large lot backs up to a creek and features a two car garage. Lots of potential with this one! Convenient access to the thruway.

22. 2019-02-15
    listed $9,900 New 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Fix and save! This home is just waiting for your imagination. It features a large open space on both the upper and lower floors, so you can configure it however you want. Large bath upstairs. The large lot backs up to a creek and features a two car garage. Lots of potential with this one! Convenient access to the thruway.

23. 2005-01-24
    soldstatus $70,500
24. 1999-10-04
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,640 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,917 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,640
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,057
• − Management: −$1,057
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$8,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,058
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fonda-Fultonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611190
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $53,979
• Composite: 51.81/100
• National rank: #1668
• State rank: #228 of 590 in NY

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #2603

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B Cost of living A Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,683 people
• By 2030: 47,785 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 45,492 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 43,161 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 38,134 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 32,337 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.7) · D 35.6% · R 64.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -28.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.7 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+26.5 2012: R+4.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.09%
• Current HPI: 292.0227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1160.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $189,000 Global MLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $199,000 Global MLS
• 2024-11-24 Rental Removed $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-11-09 Listed for Rent $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $179,900 Public Records
• 2019-06-28 Sold (MLS) $9,000 Global MLS
• 2019-04-11 Pending — Global MLS
• 2019-02-15 Listed $9,900 Global MLS
• 2005-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 1999-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,640 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.