21337 Black Oak Dr

Lost Bridge Village, AR 72732

$749,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,395 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 356 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,605/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax + insurance: −$629
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,177
• Net cashflow: $-128/mo
• Annual: $-1,542/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $209,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $749k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $726k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $560k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($659k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $560k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $57k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Garfield Elementary School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #143 of 454 statewide, top 36%, 106 students, 68% FRL); Lingle Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 766 students, 56% FRL); Rogers Heritage High School (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #138 of 292 statewide, top 48%, 2,080 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $749k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.