21337 Black Oak Dr · Lost Bridge Village, AR 72732

$749,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 356 Days on market

Built 1984 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Turnkey Beaver Lake waterfront retreat with proven Airbnb income! Nestled in a protected cove in Lost Bridge Village, this fully furnished home offers direct water access, beautiful lake views, spacious indoor/outdoor living areas, and a successful short-term rental history. Whether enjoying coffee on the deck at sunrise or evenings around the fire pit after a day on the water, every detail invites you to slow down and enjoy lake life. Perfect as a vacation getaway, investment property, or full-time lake home. Enjoy kayaking, swimming, fishing, and relaxing just steps from your backyard. Conveniently located near Lost Bridge Marina, dining, and recreation. Move-in and rental-ready. Call for

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Sauna
• Stunning views

Tags

• WATERFRONT PARADISE
• STUNNING VIEWS
• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• SAUNA
• HOT TUB
• KITCHEN REMODEL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Community features: lake access and pool; near national forest

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer; Phone service available
• Home design: Three stories; Has finished full walk-out basement; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Cedar and frame construction; Residential zoning; Has view
• Construction: Built 25+ years ago; Cedar and frame construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Balcony; Hardwood trees; Sloped lot; Wooded setting; Resort-style property; Subdivision location; Views; Outside city limits; Lakefront on Beaver Lake; Public road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Dishwasher; Electric oven; Smooth cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Trash compactor; Plumbed for ice maker; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Heat pump; Electric heating
• Interior features: Skylights; Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Granite counters; Pantry; Programmable thermostat; Hot tub / spa; Sauna; Steam room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $749k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $726k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $560k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $560k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Garfield Elementary School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #143 of 454 statewide, top 36%, 106 students, 68% FRL); Lingle Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 766 students, 56% FRL); Rogers Heritage High School (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #138 of 292 statewide, top 48%, 2,080 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $57k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($659k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $749k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $560,500 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,750
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11475 Country Club Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,441 (+3%)	13mo	$360,000	$250	64
21293 Ridgeview Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (0%)	21mo	$400,000	$287	53
11747 Dogwood Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+10%)	7mo	$208,000	$135	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $281,373
• Equity at exit: $549,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $821,635
• Equity at exit: $1,071,620

Cash invested: $209,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72732

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,605 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,798/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,177
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,768

Max offer price $726,300

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $83	+0% $-128	+5% $-340	+10% $-552
Rent	-10% $-571	-5% $-350	+0% $-128	+5% $93	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $62	base $-128	+0.5pp $-323	+1.0pp $-520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,250
• Closing costs: $22,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11889 White Oak Dr Unit 1221899P Garfield, AR	3.0	2.0	1280	$5,605	$4.38	45d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $749,000 Active 356 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $749,000 Active 353 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $749,000 Active 352 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $749,000 Active 351 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $749,000 Active 350 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $749,000 Active 348 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $749,000 Active 347 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $749,000 Active 345 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $749,000 Active 344 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $749,000 Active 343 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $749,000 Active 342 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $749,000 Active 339 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $749,000 Active 338 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $749,000 Active 337 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $799,000 Active 337 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $799,000 Active 336 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $799,000 Active 335 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $799,000 Active 334 DOM
19. 2026-03-12
    price $799,000
20. 2025-09-01
    price $839,000
21. 2025-07-01
    listed $929,000 Active
22. 2002-05-17
    soldstatus $215,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,798 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,794 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: +$995/yr (+$83/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,956
• − Property taxes: −$3,798
• − Insurance: −$3,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,381
• − Management: −$5,381
• − Depreciation: −$21,789
• Taxable loss: −$14,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,550
• After-tax cash flow: $2,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lost Bridge Village

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #21912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lost Bridge Village, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,493

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 27% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Danish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.61%
• Current HPI: 368.3932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+271.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $799,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $839,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $929,000 NWARMLS
• 2002-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,798 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.