20940 Gravel Keep

San Antonio, TX 78266

$398,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,087
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$80
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-623/mo
• Annual: $-7,477/yr
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $111,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $398k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-623 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (43.5% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (43.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.