20940 Gravel Keep · San Antonio, TX 78266

$398,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 2026 6,534 sqft lot $250/sqft · at area comps Est $391k · at est. $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Caden floor plan, where thoughtful design meets everyday comfort in this spacious single-story home located at Brookstone Creek in San Antonio, TX. With 1595 square feet of living space, this home offers 3 bedrooms, two full bathrooms and an inviting open-concept layout perfect for modern lifestyles. The kitchen is the centerpiece of The Caden, featuring stainless steel appliances, a gas cooking range, a deep single basin farmhouse sink, quartz countertops and classic white subway tile backsplash. A spacious kitchen island offers additional prep space and seating, while an elongated pantry just off the kitchen provides generous storage to keep everything neatly organized. Retreat to the main bedroom suite, complete with a tiled walk-in shower, dual vanity sinks and a large walk-in closet. Your secondary bedrooms are also retreats and feature quality carpet flooring, large windows and ample closet space, making them perfect for guests, home offices or hobby areas. This home includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Additional highlights include a covered patio (per plan) and a fully landscaped and irrigated yard for outdoor enjoyment. You'll also love vinyl plan flooring in the main living areas, kitchen and wet zones as well as a pre-plumbed water softener loop for added convenience. The Caden is designed to support your lifestyle with comfort, flexibility and timeless style - all located in the welcoming Brookstone Creek community.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Gas cooking range
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS COOKING RANGE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $398k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-623 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (43.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (43.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,992 (43.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,450
• List price: $398,000
• Delta: 1.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21126 Boulder Flts	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,595 (0%)	0mo	$379,950	$238	96
21118 Boulder Flts	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+5%)	1mo	$367,950	$219	82
21162 Boulder Flts	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+5%)	1mo	$368,950	$220	78
21130 Boulder Flts	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+12%)	0mo	$387,950	$218	71
20944 Gravel Keep	0.01mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+14%)	0mo	$417,500	$229	69
21150 Boulder Flts	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+12%)	1mo	$384,950	$217	69
20921 Gravel Keep	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+14%)	0mo	$424,105	$233	66
21117 Boulder Flts	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+14%)	3mo	$415,000	$228	64
21129 Boulder Flts	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+14%)	3mo	$415,001	$228	63
21138 Boulder Flts	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+14%)	2mo	$393,950	$216	63
21154 Boulder Flts	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+14%)	2mo	$391,950	$215	61
21170 Boulder Flts	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+14%)	3mo	$390,950	$214	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $176,893
• Equity at exit: $358,550

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $551,771
• Equity at exit: $773,226

Cash invested: $111,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78266

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,087
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $811/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,039

Max offer price $287,923

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,500
• Closing costs: $11,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5536 Jewel Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	43d	1	0.33mi
5103 Gully Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,200	$1.24	12d	1	0.34mi
20859 Rindle Ln San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,500	$1.23	19d	1	0.34mi
21027 Watercourse Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,195	$1.20	20d	1	0.38mi
5015 Gully Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2023	$2,400	$1.19	1d	1	0.38mi
5714 Pin Pt San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2146	$2,400	$1.12	1d	1	0.39mi
5518 Stormie Keep San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,250	$1.27	1d	1	0.40mi
5518 Stormie Keep San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$2,250	$1.26	2d	1	0.40mi
5602 Chestnut Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1958	$2,250	$1.15	23d	1	0.48mi
21339 Watercourse Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,300	$1.06	44d	1	0.48mi
21514 Thunder Basin San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1928	$2,100	$1.09	17d	1	0.74mi
4610 Sebastian Oak San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	2094	$2,095	$1.00	17d	1	0.87mi
4526 Bexley Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,975	$1.19	1d	1	0.95mi
20803 Cape Coral San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,200	$1.29	13d	1	1.03mi
22507 Green Jacket San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,100	$1.37	43d	1	1.05mi
5951 Southern Knl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1648	$2,500	$1.52	1d	1	1.06mi
22618 Double Bogey San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,950	$1.13	3d	1	1.09mi
5707 Tpc Pkwy San Antonio, TX	4.0	1.0–3.0	1013	$1,564	$1.54	1d	19	1.11mi
5131 Blind Shot San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	43d	1	1.12mi
5714 Agave Spine San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2011	$2,600	$1.29	43d	1	1.20mi
6015 Akin Stroll San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$2,100	$1.37	43d	1	1.22mi
5505 TPC Pkwy Unit 3213 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1895	$2,446	$1.29	1d	1	1.28mi
5505 TPC Pkwy Unit 2213 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,636	$1.43	2d	1	1.28mi
22763 Tee Shot San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2041	$2,300	$1.13	43d	1	1.29mi
5819 Akin Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,800	$1.09	23d	1	1.30mi
23215 Langdon Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$2,550	$1.23	2d	1	1.40mi
6035 Akin Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,100	$1.24	4d	1	1.46mi
6022 Akin Quay San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1739	$2,200	$1.27	4d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: watergassecurity

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $398,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $398,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $398,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $398,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $398,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $398,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $398,000 Back on Market 62 DOM
8. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1644 chars)

   Welcome to The Caden floor plan, where thoughtful design meets everyday comfort in this spacious single-story home located at Brookstone Creek in San Antonio, TX. With 1595 square feet of living space, this home offers 3 bedrooms, two full bathrooms and an inviting open-concept layout perfect for modern lifestyles. The kitchen is the centerpiece of The Caden, featuring stainless steel appliances, a gas cooking range, a deep single basin farmhouse sink, quartz countertops and classic white subway tile backsplash. A spacious kitchen island offers additional prep space and seating, while an elongated pantry just off the kitchen provides generous storage to keep everything neatly organized. Retreat to the main bedroom suite, complete with a tiled walk-in shower, dual vanity sinks and a large walk-in closet. Your secondary bedrooms are also retreats and feature quality carpet flooring, large windows and ample closet space, making them perfect for guests, home offices or hobby areas. This home includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Additional highlights include a covered patio (per plan) and a fully landscaped and irrigated yard for outdoor enjoyment. You'll also love vinyl plan flooring in the main living areas, kitchen and wet zones as well as a pre-plumbed water softener loop for added convenience. The Caden is designed to support your lifestyle with comfort, flexibility and timeless style - all located in the welcoming Brookstone Creek community.

9. 2026-04-04
   price $377,950 1644-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1644 chars)

   Welcome to The Caden floor plan, where thoughtful design meets everyday comfort in this spacious single-story home located at Brookstone Creek in San Antonio, TX. With 1595 square feet of living space, this home offers 3 bedrooms, two full bathrooms and an inviting open-concept layout perfect for modern lifestyles. The kitchen is the centerpiece of The Caden, featuring stainless steel appliances, a gas cooking range, a deep single basin farmhouse sink, quartz countertops and classic white subway tile backsplash. A spacious kitchen island offers additional prep space and seating, while an elongated pantry just off the kitchen provides generous storage to keep everything neatly organized. Retreat to the main bedroom suite, complete with a tiled walk-in shower, dual vanity sinks and a large walk-in closet. Your secondary bedrooms are also retreats and feature quality carpet flooring, large windows and ample closet space, making them perfect for guests, home offices or hobby areas. This home includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Additional highlights include a covered patio (per plan) and a fully landscaped and irrigated yard for outdoor enjoyment. You'll also love vinyl plan flooring in the main living areas, kitchen and wet zones as well as a pre-plumbed water softener loop for added convenience. The Caden is designed to support your lifestyle with comfort, flexibility and timeless style - all located in the welcoming Brookstone Creek community.

10. 2026-04-02
    price $398,000 1644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1644 chars)

    Welcome to The Caden floor plan, where thoughtful design meets everyday comfort in this spacious single-story home located at Brookstone Creek in San Antonio, TX. With 1595 square feet of living space, this home offers 3 bedrooms, two full bathrooms and an inviting open-concept layout perfect for modern lifestyles. The kitchen is the centerpiece of The Caden, featuring stainless steel appliances, a gas cooking range, a deep single basin farmhouse sink, quartz countertops and classic white subway tile backsplash. A spacious kitchen island offers additional prep space and seating, while an elongated pantry just off the kitchen provides generous storage to keep everything neatly organized. Retreat to the main bedroom suite, complete with a tiled walk-in shower, dual vanity sinks and a large walk-in closet. Your secondary bedrooms are also retreats and feature quality carpet flooring, large windows and ample closet space, making them perfect for guests, home offices or hobby areas. This home includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Additional highlights include a covered patio (per plan) and a fully landscaped and irrigated yard for outdoor enjoyment. You'll also love vinyl plan flooring in the main living areas, kitchen and wet zones as well as a pre-plumbed water softener loop for added convenience. The Caden is designed to support your lifestyle with comfort, flexibility and timeless style - all located in the welcoming Brookstone Creek community.

11. 2026-03-20
    listed $396,000 New 1644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1644 chars)

    Welcome to The Caden floor plan, where thoughtful design meets everyday comfort in this spacious single-story home located at Brookstone Creek in San Antonio, TX. With 1595 square feet of living space, this home offers 3 bedrooms, two full bathrooms and an inviting open-concept layout perfect for modern lifestyles. The kitchen is the centerpiece of The Caden, featuring stainless steel appliances, a gas cooking range, a deep single basin farmhouse sink, quartz countertops and classic white subway tile backsplash. A spacious kitchen island offers additional prep space and seating, while an elongated pantry just off the kitchen provides generous storage to keep everything neatly organized. Retreat to the main bedroom suite, complete with a tiled walk-in shower, dual vanity sinks and a large walk-in closet. Your secondary bedrooms are also retreats and feature quality carpet flooring, large windows and ample closet space, making them perfect for guests, home offices or hobby areas. This home includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Additional highlights include a covered patio (per plan) and a fully landscaped and irrigated yard for outdoor enjoyment. You'll also love vinyl plan flooring in the main living areas, kitchen and wet zones as well as a pre-plumbed water softener loop for added convenience. The Caden is designed to support your lifestyle with comfort, flexibility and timeless style - all located in the welcoming Brookstone Creek community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $811 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,283 · $607/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,472/yr (+$539/mo · 798.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,294
• − Property taxes: −$811
• − Insurance: −$1,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$11,578
• Taxable loss: −$14,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,589
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North East ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,715
• Composite: 38.1/100
• National rank: #4276
• State rank: #276 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 7,274

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 25% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.56%
• Current HPI: 361.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $377,950 LERA
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $398,000 LERA
• 2026-03-20 Listed $396,000 LERA

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $811 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.