11075 Dell Ave

Forestville, CA 95436

$499,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · Built 1953 · MultiFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,624/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax + insurance: −$545
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$761
• Net cashflow: $-299/mo
• Annual: $-3,589/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.00%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $139,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $499k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-150/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $446k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $362k (27.4% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $362k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#671 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Forestville Union Elementary (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #854 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forestville Elementary (54 students, 30% FRL); Forestville Academy (170 students, 40% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $309k; list at $499k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.6% in Forestville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.