12436 Highway 412

Alpena, AR 72611

$125,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,149/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $173/mo
• Annual: $2,077/yr
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.93%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (8.1% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#244 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alpena School District (rural): math 35% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #122 of 238 in AR (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alpena Elementary School (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #333 of 454 statewide, top 75%, 235 students, 65% FRL); Alpena High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #48 of 292 statewide, top 19%, 235 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (46%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $125k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.