12436 Highway 412 · Alpena, AR 72611

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1996 5.00 ac lot $101/sqft · 26% above area Est $99k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity with this 3 bedroom 2 bath 1996 Chow manufactured home on approximately 5 acres, m/l, mostly wooded with large deck & great view.   Home should go USDA, FHA, VA, etc. & could possibly be perfect for the first time homebuyer.   Home could also be purchased with 12446 Hwy 412 MLS#1336713 If split, there will be a shared well agreement.   All #s are approx, age & square footage per assessor, buyer to verify existence of septic.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Mostly wooded
• 5 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE DECK
• APPROXIMATELY 5 ACRES
• MOSTLY WOODED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#244 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alpena School District (rural): math 35% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #122 of 238 in AR (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alpena Elementary School (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #333 of 454 statewide, top 75%, 235 students, 65% FRL); Alpena High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #48 of 292 statewide, top 19%, 235 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (46%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $125k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,896 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.93%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,000
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 26.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $24,444
• Equity at exit: $54,531

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $73,481
• Equity at exit: $82,758

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72611

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $324/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $930

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $244	-5% $208	+0% $173	+5% $138	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $128	+0% $173	+5% $218	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $205	base $173	+0.5pp $141	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
19. 2026-05-19
    status Pending 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Great opportunity with this 3 bedroom 2 bath 1996 Chow manufactured home on approximately 5 acres, m/l, mostly wooded with large deck & great view.   Home should go USDA, FHA, VA, etc. & could possibly be perfect for the first time homebuyer.   Home could also be purchased with 12446 Hwy 412 MLS#1336713 If split, there will be a shared well agreement.   All #s are approx, age & square footage per assessor, buyer to verify existence of septic.

20. 2026-05-12
    status Pending 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Buy 2 for the price of 1 with these 2 manufactured homes on 9.88 acres. There is a 3BR/2BA 2008 Fleetwood manufactured home and a 3BR 2BA 1996 Chow manufactured home with approximately 1/4 mile of Hwy 412 frontage. All #'s are approx. square footage and acreage per assessor. Buyer to verify existence of septic. Also see MLS#1336717 & 1336516

21. 2026-05-02
    historical 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Buy 2 for the price of 1 with these 2 manufactured homes on 9.88 acres. There is a 3BR/2BA 2008 Fleetwood manufactured home and a 3BR 2BA 1996 Chow manufactured home with approximately 1/4 mile of Hwy 412 frontage. All #'s are approx. square footage and acreage per assessor. Buyer to verify existence of septic. Also see MLS#1336717 & 1336516

22. 2026-05-01
    status Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Buy 2 for the price of 1 with these 2 manufactured homes on 9.88 acres. There is a 3BR/2BA 2008 Fleetwood manufactured home and a 3BR 2BA 1996 Chow manufactured home with approximately 1/4 mile of Hwy 412 frontage. All #'s are approx. square footage and acreage per assessor. Buyer to verify existence of septic. Also see MLS#1336717 & 1336516

23. 2026-05-01
    status Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Buy 2 for the price of 1 with these 2 manufactured homes on 9.88 acres. There is a 3BR/2BA 2008 Fleetwood manufactured home and a 3BR 2BA 1996 Chow manufactured home with approximately 1/4 mile of Hwy 412 frontage. All #'s are approx. square footage and acreage per assessor. Buyer to verify existence of septic. Also see MLS#1336717 & 1336516

24. 2026-04-01
    status Pending 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Great opportunity with this 3 bedroom 2 bath 1996 Chow manufactured home on approximately 5 acres, m/l, mostly wooded with large deck & great view.   Home should go USDA, FHA, VA, etc. & could possibly be perfect for the first time homebuyer.   Home could also be purchased with 12446 Hwy 412 MLS#1336713 If split, there will be a shared well agreement.   All #s are approx, age & square footage per assessor, buyer to verify existence of septic.

25. 2026-04-01
    status Pending 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Great opportunity with this 3 bedroom 2 bath 1996 Chow manufactured home on approximately 5 acres, m/l, mostly wooded with large deck & great view.   Home should go USDA, FHA, VA, etc. & could possibly be perfect for the first time homebuyer.   Home could also be purchased with 12446 Hwy 412 MLS#1336713 If split, there will be a shared well agreement.   All #s are approx, age & square footage per assessor, buyer to verify existence of septic.

26. 2026-02-20
    listed $229,900 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Buy 2 for the price of 1 with these 2 manufactured homes on 9.88 acres. There is a 3BR/2BA 2008 Fleetwood manufactured home and a 3BR 2BA 1996 Chow manufactured home with approximately 1/4 mile of Hwy 412 frontage. All #'s are approx. square footage and acreage per assessor. Buyer to verify existence of septic. Also see MLS#1336717 & 1336516

27. 2026-02-19
    listed $125,000 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Great opportunity with this 3 bedroom 2 bath 1996 Chow manufactured home on approximately 5 acres, m/l, mostly wooded with large deck & great view.   Home should go USDA, FHA, VA, etc. & could possibly be perfect for the first time homebuyer.   Home could also be purchased with 12446 Hwy 412 MLS#1336713 If split, there will be a shared well agreement.   All #s are approx, age & square footage per assessor, buyer to verify existence of septic.

28. 2022-10-19
    soldstatus $75,000
29. 2018-01-29
    soldstatus $35,000
30. 2018-01-19
    soldstatus $35,000
31. 2017-02-03
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $324 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$476/yr (+$40/mo · 146.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$324
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$6
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1
• After-tax cash flow: $2,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpena School District
• NCES district ID: 0502280
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $39,637
• Composite: 28.95/100
• National rank: #6628
• State rank: #122 of 238 in AR

Livability — Alpena

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #17958

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,783

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,014 people
• By 2030: 28,006 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 28,242 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 29,169 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 33,935 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 39,497 · +41.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Slovak 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+32.3 2012: R+23.9 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.76%
• Current HPI: 321.7957
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+410.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Delisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $229,900 NWARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $125,000 NWARMLS
• 2022-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-19 Sold (MLS) $35,000 NWARMLS
• 2017-02-03 Listed $45,000 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+31.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $324 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.