2756 Berwood Ln

Hebron, KY 41048

$290,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,007 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,001/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-234/mo
• Annual: $-2,813/yr
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (31.0% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $200k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#69 in KY, #1,700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chester Goodridge Elementary School (math 39% / reading 51%, grade D-, #143 of 676 statewide, top 22%, 633 students, 45% FRL); Conner Middle School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade B-, #6 of 217 statewide, top 2%, 896 students, 35% FRL); Conner High School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,443 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $133k; list at $290k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in Hebron — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($137k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.