2756 Berwood Ln · Hebron, KY 41048

$290,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,007 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1998 10,019 sqft lot Est $270k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Custom Built Home! Updated Thruout! Lg 4 Bdrm 3 Bath! Fenced Private Lot! New Carpet, Paint, Flooring & Appliances, Oversized Family Rm, W/FPL & Vaulted Ceilings, Oversized 2 Car Gar. Minutes to Interstate!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in Hebron — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#69 in KY, #1,700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chester Goodridge Elementary School (math 39% / reading 51%, grade D-, #143 of 676 statewide, top 22%, 633 students, 45% FRL); Conner Middle School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade B-, #6 of 217 statewide, top 2%, 896 students, 35% FRL); Conner High School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,443 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($137k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $133k; list at $290k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $200,053 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,876
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2756 Berwood Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,007 (0%)	1mo	$300,000	$298	94
2759 Ridgefield Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,018 (+1%)	7mo	$236,000	$232	86
2780 Berwood Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,026 (+2%)	11mo	$285,000	$278	85
2772 Berwood Ln	0.04mi	3/3.0	1,052 (+4%)	8mo	$285,000	$271	82
1774 Asbury Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	987 (-2%)	11mo	$265,000	$268	80
2620 Berwood Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,028 (+2%)	14mo	$245,000	$238	76
1852 Princess Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,023 (+2%)	7mo	$272,000	$266	74
2521 Hilliard Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,023 (+2%)	13mo	$275,000	$269	70
1789 Nicole Lauren Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,024 (+2%)	1mo	$315,000	$308	66
1769 Elijah Creek Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,052 (+4%)	20mo	$255,000	$242	66
2509 Hilliard Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,080 (+7%)	14mo	$270,000	$250	62
2867 Donjoy Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,062 (+6%)	21mo	$285,000	$268	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-62,011
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-73,576
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41048

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,079/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,297

Max offer price $248,583

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-152	+0% $-234	+5% $-317	+10% $-399
Rent	-10% $-392	-5% $-313	+0% $-234	+5% $-155	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-161	base $-234	+0.5pp $-310	+1.0pp $-386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3465 Hebron Station Dr Hebron, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	819	$1,510	$1.84	4d	20	0.75mi
2375 S Park Dr Hebron, KY	2.0	1.0	821	$1,267	$1.54	3d	3	1.31mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $290,000 Active
3. 2010-03-19
   soldstatus $132,900
4. 2010-03-11
   soldstatus $132,900 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Custom Built Home! Updated Thruout! Lg 4 Bdrm 3 Bath! Fenced Private Lot! New Carpet, Paint, Flooring & Appliances, Oversized Family Rm, W/FPL & Vaulted Ceilings, Oversized 2 Car Gar. Minutes to Interstate!

5. 2010-01-30
   listed $136,900 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Custom Built Home! Updated Thruout! Lg 4 Bdrm 3 Bath! Fenced Private Lot! New Carpet, Paint, Flooring & Appliances, Oversized Family Rm, W/FPL & Vaulted Ceilings, Oversized 2 Car Gar. Minutes to Interstate!

6. 2009-09-29
   soldstatus $90,000 234-char remark

   Show marketing remark (234 chars)

   Large bi level on corner lot. 2.5 baths. FR convert to 2 BD rm and garage has bedroom. Lender owned. BOA preapproval required with all financed deals. Free credit report and appraisal with boa financing. Proof of fund with cash offers

7. 2009-09-11
   listed $86,900 234-char remark

   Show marketing remark (234 chars)

   Large bi level on corner lot. 2.5 baths. FR convert to 2 BD rm and garage has bedroom. Lender owned. BOA preapproval required with all financed deals. Free credit report and appraisal with boa financing. Proof of fund with cash offers

8. 1999-12-28
   soldstatus $114,000
9. 1999-12-15
   soldstatus $114,000
10. 1999-08-18
    listed $114,700
11. 1996-01-30
    soldstatus $98,115

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,079 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,494 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$415/yr (+$35/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$2,079
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$8,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,931
• After-tax cash flow: $-883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hebron

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #1700

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hebron, KY
• County: Boone County · 99,563 people
• City population: 16,211
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 16,211
• Household income: $137,398
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.70%
• Current HPI: 189.8568
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+195.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $290,000 NKMLS
• 2010-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $132,900 Public Records
• 2010-03-11 Sold (MLS) $132,900 NKMLS
• 2010-01-30 Listed $136,900 NKMLS
• 2009-09-29 Sold (MLS) $90,000 NKMLS
• 2009-09-11 Listed $86,900 NKMLS
• 1999-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-15 Sold (MLS) $114,000 NKMLS
• 1999-08-18 Listed $114,700 NKMLS
• 1996-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $98,115 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,079 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.