Caroline Plan

Waldorf, MD 20695

$399,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,917 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 402 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,349/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,353
• Tax + insurance: −$748
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$703
• Net cashflow: $-455/mo
• Annual: $-5,463/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.35%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $125,648

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $400k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-455 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $335k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 402 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $335k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mary H. Matula Elementary School (math 14% / reading 23%, grade F, #393 of 860 statewide, top 46%, 551 students, 36% FRL); Milton M. Somers Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #97 of 225 statewide, top 46%, 666 students, 39% FRL); La Plata High School (math 51% / reading 74%, grade B-, #62 of 222 statewide, top 29%, 1,222 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 21% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Charles County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 402 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.