Caroline Plan · Waldorf, MD 20695

$399,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,917 sqft · Townhouse · 450 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home features a secluded first-floor owner's suite, offering a private retreat complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while an open-concept layout blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple transitions and everyday multitasking. Two additional bedrooms are located on the second level, just steps from a full bathroom and convenient shared living area in the versatile loft.

Key facts

• Event room
• Exercise room
• Swimming pool

Tags

• ONSITE COMMUNITY CENTER
• SWIMMING POOL
• EXERCISE ROOM
• WALKING TRAILS
• EVENT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $399,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $448,094.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $400k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-441 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mary H. Matula Elementary School (math 14% / reading 23%, grade F, #393 of 860 statewide, top 46%, 551 students, 36% FRL); Milton M. Somers Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #97 of 225 statewide, top 46%, 666 students, 39% FRL); La Plata High School (math 51% / reading 74%, grade B-, #62 of 222 statewide, top 29%, 1,222 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 21% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Charles County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 450 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $336,220 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 450 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $448,094
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -10.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11175 Conway Pl	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,824 (-5%)	1mo	$400,000	$219	69
5507 Aberdeen Pl	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,880 (-2%)	2mo	$402,890	$214	59
5625 Ludlow Pl	0.72mi	3/3.5	1,871 (-2%)	1mo	$397,990	$213	58
5525 Aberdeen Pl	0.67mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,871 (-2%)	1mo	$349,990	$187	57
5613 Ludlow Pl	0.74mi	3/3.5	1,871 (-2%)	1mo	$375,990	$201	56
5524 Aberdeen Pl	0.69mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,862 (-3%)	2mo	$349,990	$188	54
5513 Aberdeen Pl	0.71mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,862 (-3%)	1mo	$349,990	$188	54
5568 Marksburg Pl	0.68mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,862 (-3%)	2mo	$381,990	$205	53
5567 Marksburg Pl	0.67mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,862 (-3%)	2mo	$382,490	$205	53
5537 Marksburg Pl	0.72mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,862 (-3%)	1mo	$379,490	$204	52
5557 Marksburg Pl Pl	0.69mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,829 (-5%)	2mo	$380,490	$208	50
5546 Marksburg Pl Pl	0.72mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,829 (-5%)	3mo	$379,990	$208	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-100,618
• Equity at exit: $66,812

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-123,539
• Equity at exit: $38,743

Cash invested: $125,466 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 79 active · 62 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.1 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,990 ($207/sqft)
• Median days on market: 54 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 20695

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,362 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,350
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$560 /mo · $6,721/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $-441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,920

Max offer price $384,347

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-286	+0% $-441	+5% $-595	+10% $-750
Rent	-10% $-706	-5% $-573	+0% $-441	+5% $-308	+10% $-175
Rate	-1.0pp $-215	-0.5pp $-327	base $-441	+0.5pp $-557	+1.0pp $-675

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,023
• Closing costs: $13,443
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3908 Glacier Bay Pl White Plains, MD	4.0	2.5	2388	$3,200	$1.34	86d	1	0.16mi
4152 Skipton Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2529	$3,300	$1.30	80d	1	0.38mi
4165 Brodie Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2544	$3,000	$1.18	113d	1	0.40mi
11687 Emily Dickinson Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2496	$3,500	$1.40	59d	1	0.41mi
11180 Conway Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1765	$3,392	$1.92	4d	12	0.48mi
5692 Glencoe Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1842	$3,460	$1.88	0d	1	0.52mi
10893 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,250	$1.48	117d	1	0.58mi
10933 Drummond Pl Unit 10933 White Plains, MD	3.0	3.0	2300	$3,500	$1.52	101d	1	0.62mi
10939 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,500	$1.60	120d	1	0.63mi
10728 Millport St White Plains, MD	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,400	$1.42	23d	1	0.64mi
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	108d	1	0.70mi
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	94d	1	0.70mi
5625 Ludlow Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	1871	$3,500	$1.87	4d	1	0.75mi
5616 Ludlow Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	1871	$2,985	$1.60	23d	1	0.77mi
5457 Spotswood Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2180	$3,200	$1.47	69d	1	0.77mi
5754 Frederick Douglas Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2220	$3,500	$1.58	139d	1	0.79mi
11177 Southport Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1718	$2,950	$1.72	50d	1	0.80mi
11468 Stockport Pl White Plains, MD	4.0	3.0	2382	$3,300	$1.39	10d	1	0.92mi
11472 Stockport Pl White Plains, MD	4.0	3.5	2418	$3,500	$1.45	139d	1	0.93mi
10605 Willetts Crossing Rd White Plains, MD	4.0	1.0	1514	$2,390	$1.58	139d	1	1.31mi
1056 Rye Dr La Plata, MD	4.0	3.5	2336	$2,800	$1.20	85d	1	1.37mi
981 Rye Dr La Plata, MD	3.0	3.5	2380	$3,000	$1.26	2d	1	1.40mi
5525 Peanuts Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	4.0	2160	$3,400	$1.57	139d	1	1.40mi
5427 Doubleday Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	2160	$2,989	$1.38	10d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $399,990 Active 450 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $399,990 Active 449 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $399,990 Active 448 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $399,990 Active 447 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $399,990 Active 446 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $399,990 Active 445 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $399,990 Active 444 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $399,990 Active 443 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $399,990 Active 442 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $399,990 Active 441 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 440 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $399,990 Active 439 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $399,990 Active 438 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 432 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 431 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 430 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $399,990 Active 427 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $399,990 Active 425 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 424 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $399,990 Active 423 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $399,990 Active 422 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $399,990 Active 421 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 420 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $399,990 Active 419 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 418 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $399,990 Active 417 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $399,990 Active 416 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $399,990 Active 415 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 414 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $399,990 Active 413 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $399,990 Active 412 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $399,990 Active 411 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $399,990 Active 410 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 409 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $399,990 Active 408 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $399,990 Active 407 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $399,990 Active 406 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $399,990 Active 405 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $399,990 Active 402 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 401 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 400 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 399 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $399,990 Active 396 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 394 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 393 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $399,990 Active 391 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 389 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $399,990 Active 388 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 387 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $399,990 Active 386 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,100
• − Property taxes: −$6,721
• − Insurance: −$2,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,228
• − Management: −$3,228
• − Depreciation: −$13,035
• Taxable loss: −$13,207
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,170
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for further value enhancement through landscaping and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase the home's market value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mary H. Matula Elementary School F MD #393/860 Nat'l #34,688/41,679 Middle Milton M. Somers Middle School F MD #97/225 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High La Plata High School B- MD #62/222 Nat'l #3,176/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Waldorf

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waldorf, MD
• County: Charles County · 176,616 people
• City population: 103,527
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 16,407
• Household income: $141,959
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 61% White 23% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 226.972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-30 Listed $399,990 Zillow