🏗️ New Construction
Caroline Plan · Waldorf, MD
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $755 – $1,403
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 27.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +8.0/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Condition / age +4.8/5.0
- Schools +3.6/10.0
- Livability +3.6/5.0
- 1% rule +2.5/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +2.1/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$399,990
Caroline Plan · Waldorf, MD 20695
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,917 sqft · Townhouse
· 402 Days on market
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This new two-story home features a secluded first-floor owner's suite, offering a private retreat complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while an open-concept layout blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple transitions and everyday multitasking. Two additional bedrooms are located on the second level, just steps from a full bathroom and convenient shared living area in the versatile loft.
Key facts
- Event room
- Exercise room
- Swimming pool
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction.
The $399,990 list price is a builder
figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from
comparable previous sales — $448,741.
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $400k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-455 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (4.3% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $335k (16.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $335k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
- Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Mary H. Matula Elementary School (math 14% / reading 23%, grade F, #393 of 860 statewide, top 46%, 551 students, 36% FRL); Milton M. Somers Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #97 of 225 statewide, top 46%, 666 students, 39% FRL); La Plata High School (math 51% / reading 74%, grade B-, #62 of 222 statewide, top 29%, 1,222 students, 25% FRL).
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 21% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Charles County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
- Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 402 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$334,920
(16.3% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 402 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.75% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.08%
- Cash-on-cash
- -4.35%
- DSCR
- 0.81
- GRM
- 11.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $448,741
- List price
- $399,990
- Delta
- -10.86%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5507 Aberdeen Pl | 0.73mi | 3/3.0 | 1,880 (-2%) | 0mo | $402,890 | $214 | 60 |
| 5522 Aberdeen Pl | 0.69mi | 3/3.0 | 1,837 (-4%) | 1mo | $399,990 | $218 | 58 |
| 5524 Aberdeen Pl | 0.69mi | 2/3.0 (-1) | 1,862 (-3%) | 0mo | $349,990 | $188 | 56 |
| 5616 Ludlow Pl | 0.74mi | 3/3.5 | 1,871 (-2%) | 2mo | $379,990 | $203 | 56 |
| 5526 Aberdeen Pl | 0.69mi | 2/3.0 (-1) | 1,862 (-3%) | 2mo | $349,990 | $188 | 54 |
| 5568 Marksburg Pl | 0.68mi | 2/3.5 (-1) | 1,862 (-3%) | 0mo | $381,990 | $205 | 54 |
| 5567 Marksburg Pl | 0.67mi | 2/3.5 (-1) | 1,862 (-3%) | 1mo | $382,490 | $205 | 54 |
| 5557 Marksburg Pl Pl | 0.69mi | 2/3.5 (-1) | 1,829 (-5%) | 0mo | $380,490 | $208 | 51 |
| 5518 Aberdeen Pl | 0.71mi | 3/3.0 | 2,072 (+8%) | 2mo | $398,990 | $193 | 50 |
| 5546 Marksburg Pl Pl | 0.72mi | 2/3.5 (-1) | 1,829 (-5%) | 1mo | $379,990 | $208 | 48 |
| 5534 Marksburg Pl | 0.74mi | 2/3.5 (-1) | 1,829 (-5%) | 1mo | $379,990 | $208 | 48 |
| 10528 Cobbler Pl | 0.75mi | 3/3.5 | 2,117 (+10%) | 1mo | $433,890 | $205 | 43 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -23.6%
- Equity multiple
- 0.19×
- Total profit
- $-101,662
- Equity at exit
- $66,909
10-year hold
- IRR
- -18.5%
- Equity multiple
- -0.00×
- Total profit
- $-125,659
- Equity at exit
- $38,799
Cash invested: $125,648 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 27 Tenant-Leaning
- State Maryland
- 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.
Balanced market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 68 active · 51 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $399,990 ($209/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 59 d
- This list price
- 47% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +12.1% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 20695
- Home prices YoY
- -5.3%
- Active inventory
- 281
- Price-to-rent
- 10.0×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $3,349 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,353
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$561 /mo · $6,731/yr
- Insurance
- −$187
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$703
- Net cashflow
- $-455
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$3,926
Max offer price
$382,861
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-145 | -5% $-300 | +0% $-455 | +5% $-610 | +10% $-765 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-720 | -5% $-588 | +0% $-455 | +5% $-323 | +10% $-191 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-229 | -0.5pp $-341 | base $-455 | +0.5pp $-572 | +1.0pp $-690 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $112,185
- Closing costs
- $13,462
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 23 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3908 Glacier Bay Pl White Plains, MD | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2388 | $3,200 | $1.34 | 39d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 4152 Skipton Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2529 | $3,300 | $1.30 | 33d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 4165 Brodie Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2544 | $3,000 | $1.18 | 66d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 11687 Emily Dickinson Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2496 | $3,500 | $1.40 | 12d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 11180 Conway Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1765 | $3,418 | $1.94 | 0d | 10 | 0.48mi |
| 5692 Glencoe Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1942 | $3,254 | $1.67 | 3d | 4 | 0.52mi |
| 10893 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2192 | $3,250 | $1.48 | 71d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 10933 Drummond Pl Unit 10933 White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2300 | $3,500 | $1.52 | 54d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 10939 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2192 | $3,500 | $1.60 | 73d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1880 | $3,000 | $1.60 | 62d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1880 | $3,000 | $1.60 | 48d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 5616 Ludlow Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 3.5 | 1871 | $3,050 | $1.63 | 3d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 5457 Spotswood Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2180 | $3,200 | $1.47 | 23d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 5754 Frederick Douglas Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2220 | $3,500 | $1.58 | 93d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 11177 Southport Pl White Plains, MD | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1718 | $2,950 | $1.72 | 3d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 5764 Frederick Douglas Pl White Plains, MD | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2460 | $3,500 | $1.42 | 3d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 11472 Stockport Pl White Plains, MD | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2418 | $3,500 | $1.45 | 93d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 10263 Pine Hill Pl La Plata, MD | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1088 | $3,160 | $2.90 | 1d | 12 | 1.08mi |
| 10605 Willetts Crossing Rd White Plains, MD | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1514 | $2,390 | $1.58 | 93d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 1056 Rye Dr La Plata, MD | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2336 | $2,800 | $1.20 | 38d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 981 Rye Dr La Plata, MD | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2380 | $3,000 | $1.26 | 73d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 5525 Peanuts Ln Waldorf, MD | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2160 | $3,400 | $1.57 | 93d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 5427 Doubleday Ln Waldorf, MD | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2160 | $3,169 | $1.47 | 0d | 1 | 1.45mi |
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-06days on market $399,990 Active 402 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $399,990 Active 401 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $399,990 Active 400 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $399,990 Active 399 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $399,990 Active 396 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $399,990 Active 394 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $399,990 Active 393 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $399,990 Active 391 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $399,990 Active 389 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $399,990 Active 388 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $399,990 Active 387 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $399,990 Active 386 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $399,990 Active 385 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $399,990 Active 383 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $399,990 Active 382 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $399,990 Active 381 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $399,990 Active 380 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $399,990 Active 379 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $399,990 Active 378 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $399,990 Active 377 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $399,990 Active 376 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $399,990 Active 375 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $399,990 Active 374 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $399,990 Active 372 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $399,990 Active 371 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $399,990 Active 370 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $399,990 Active 369 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $399,990 Active 368 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $399,990 Active 367 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $399,990 Active 366 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $399,990 Active 365 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $399,990 Active 364 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $399,990 Active 363 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $399,990 Active 362 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $399,990 Active 361 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $399,990 Active 359 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $399,990 Active 357 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $399,990 Active 356 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $399,990 Active 353 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $399,990 Active 352 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $399,990 Active 351 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $399,990 Active 350 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $399,990 Active 348 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $399,990 Active 344 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $399,990 Active 343 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $399,990 Active 342 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $399,990 Active 339 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $399,990 Active 338 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $399,990 Active 337 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $399,990 Active 336 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $40,190
- − Mortgage interest
- −$25,136
- − Property taxes
- −$6,731
- − Insurance
- −$2,244
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,215
- − Management
- −$3,215
- − Depreciation
- −$13,054
- Taxable loss
- −$13,406
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,217
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,246/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
95/100
None rehab
This townhouse is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for further value enhancement through landscaping and smart home features.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
- Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase the home's market value ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Mary H. Matula Elementary School
F
MD #393/860
Nat'l #34,688/41,679
Middle
Milton M. Somers Middle School
F
MD #97/225
Nat'l #10,204/14,009
High
La Plata High School
B-
MD #62/222
Nat'l #3,176/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Charles County Public Schools
- NCES district ID
- 2400270
- Math proficiency
- 13% ▼ -19.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 29% ▼ -13.00%
- Median HH income
- $90,389
- Composite
- 22.54/100
- National rank
- #8087
- State rank
- #14 of 24 in MD
B
Composite livability gradescore 72/100
Livability — Waldorf
- Score
- 72/100
- State rank
- #141
- US rank
- #6083
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute A+
Cost of living F
Crime D-
Employment A+
Housing A+
Health & safety F
User ratings B
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Waldorf, MD
- County
- Charles County · 176,616 people
- City population
- 103,527
- Metro
- Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Population (ZIP)
- 16,407
- Household income
- $141,959
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 14% of renters
Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 176,616 people
- By 2030
- 186,471 · +5.6%
- By 2040
- 206,472 · +16.9%
- By 2050
- 224,883 · +27.3%
- By 2075
- 272,101 · +54.1%
- By 2100
- 303,564 · +71.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 61% White 23% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, South Korea
- Languages at home
- 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Charles
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -12.63%
- Current HPI
- 226.972
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.97%
- F500 in state
- 12
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Aerospace / Defense | 1 | $71B |
|
||
| Utilities | 1 | $25B |
|
||
| Hotels | 1 | $24B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 1 | $7B |
|
||
| Real Estate | 1 | $6B |
|
||
| Chemicals | 1 | $2B |
|
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2025-06-30 Listed $399,990 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…