11790 S Dawn Dr

Fortuna Foothills, AZ 85367

$120,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,359/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $362/mo
• Annual: $4,341/yr
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.92%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#174 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Yuma Union High School District (4507) (urban): math 14% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #212 of 249 in AZ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 413 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $120k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.2% in Fortuna Foothills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.