11790 S Dawn Dr · Fortuna Foothills, AZ 85367

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1970 5,866 sqft lot Est $115k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

There is a 1bd single wide and a fifth wheel home and RV hookup so investors take a look at this money making property. A little TLC and positive cash flow easily. On septic so NO high sewer bills.

Key facts

• Plenty of parking
• Covered patio
• Walkable access

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• COVERED PATIO
• PLENTY OF PARKING
• GENEROUS STORAGE SPACE
• WALKABLE ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has a view; Includes shed(s)

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Located in Foothills Country Club Estates
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating; Cooling
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.2% in Fortuna Foothills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#174 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Yuma Union High School District (4507) (urban): math 14% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #212 of 249 in AZ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 413 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $120k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.92%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,368
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13223 E 38 Pl	0.10mi	2/2.0	573 (+4%)	5mo	$120,000	$209	81
12873 E 36 Way	0.38mi	2/1.0	528 (-4%)	10mo	$148,000	$280	67
13180 E 39 St	0.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	622 (+13%)	11mo	$120,000	$193	57
12861 E 36 Way	0.38mi	2/2.0	576 (+4%)	22mo	$109,000	$189	53
13249 E 43 Dr	0.57mi	1/1.0 (-1)	576 (+4%)	14mo	$128,000	$222	49
13239 E 43 Ln	0.62mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (+10%)	3mo	$139,000	$229	47
13388 E 43 St	0.51mi	2/1.0	627 (+14%)	18mo	$130,000	$207	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $5,568
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $42,871
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85367

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 413
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $395/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $430	-5% $396	+0% $362	+5% $328	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $308	+0% $362	+5% $415	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $422	-0.5pp $392	base $362	+0.5pp $331	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13292 E 41st St Yuma, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$1,195	$1.71	14d	1	0.23mi
12338 E 34th Pl Yuma, AZ	1.0	1.0	396	$1,500	$3.79	14d	1	1.09mi
11436 S Clara Anita Dr Yuma, AZ	1.0	1.0	407	$975	$2.40	14d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $395 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$397/yr (+$33/mo · 100.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥113°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$395
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$599
• After-tax cash flow: $3,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yuma Union High School District (4507)
• NCES district ID: 0409630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,512
• Composite: 12.86/100
• National rank: #9592
• State rank: #212 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Fortuna Foothills

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #18663

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fortuna Foothills, AZ
• County: Yuma County · 149,809 people
• City population: 21,356
• Metro: Yuma, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,074
• Household income: $58,469
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Yuma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,633 people
• By 2030: 214,114 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 217,856 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 220,276 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 222,359 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 198,880 · -6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuma

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.3% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+6.2 2016: R+5.5 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.81%
• Current HPI: 227.2692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.46%
• Metro: Yuma, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $120,000 YAR
• 2021-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-02 Sold (MLS) $40,000 YAR
• 2018-07-13 Listed $46,000 YAR
• 2008-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $395 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.