11759 N Fm 315

Poynor, TX 75770

$80,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Active · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,104/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $378/mo
• Annual: $4,533/yr
• Cap rate: 11.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.24%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#798 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lapoynor ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #330 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.