11759 N Fm 315 · Poynor, TX 75770

$80,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily · 142 Days on market

Built 1939 0.76 ac lot ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 2 bath in Lapoynor ISD!! This home sits on 1+/- acre with fenced in backyard and storage shed. LARGE master bedroom, BIG laundry room and 1 car carport. Come take a look.

Key facts

• Garden area
• Hobby room
• Storage shed

Tags

• FARM HOUSE
• STORAGE SHED
• GARDEN AREA
• HOBBY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 covered/carport space); Driveway; Gravel parking; Total 1 parking space
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Chain link and barbed wire fencing; Workshop; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Smoke detector(s); Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#798 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lapoynor ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #330 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.24%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,752
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12107 Split Oak Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,401 (+1%)	3mo	$289,000	$206	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $33,676
• Equity at exit: $35,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $86,151
• Equity at exit: $55,436

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75770

• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $495/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $625

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 400-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $80,000 Active 140 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $495 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,464 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$969/yr (+$81/mo · 195.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$495
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,059
• − Management: −$1,059
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$821
• After-tax cash flow: $3,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lapoynor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826220
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 36.07/100
• National rank: #4768
• State rank: #330 of 826 in TX

Livability — Poynor

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #14572

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poynor, TX
• City population: 98
• Population (ZIP): 2,736

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-51.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Relisted — PAOR
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $80,000 PAOR
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — PAOR
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $100,000 PAOR
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $110,000 PAOR
• 2026-01-16 Listed $128,000 PAOR
• 2022-06-06 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-06-06 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2022-03-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-03-01 Listed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-01 Listed $165,000 HCBOR

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $495 · +28.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.