3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,450 sqft ·
Built 2023
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 55 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,590/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$442
HOA
−$29
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$334
Net cashflow
$-80/mo
Annual
$-962/yr
Cap rate
5.71%
Cash-on-cash
-2.08%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$46,197
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-962/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (8.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (3.7% below list).
It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $151k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Julian C Gallardo El (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 544 students, 87% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-80YNRR8WZXQP6S
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29