55 Bay Dr #2101

Niceville, FL 32578

$210,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$493
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-346/mo
• Annual: $-4,148/yr
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#147 in FL, #2,207 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $129k; list at $210k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.0% in Niceville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?