55 Bay Dr #2101 · Niceville, FL 32578

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · Condo public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1985 $180/sqft · 14% below area Est $245k · 14% under $493/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A quaint and beautiful find in Bluewater Bay in the Garden Oaks Condos. This home is carpet free with tile and laminate floors for easy clean up. It also features 2 bedrooms in a split bedroom style. The family room is extremely comfortable and affords a gracious living area. The screened porch is an extension of a Florida living area environment and provides a great space to enjoy the Florida weather. The kitchen has a pass through window, ample storage area and all of the basic amenities of a kitchen. There is a washer and dryer that will convey with this property.

Key facts

• $493 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.0% in Niceville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#147 in FL, #2,207 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $129k; list at $210k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.

Recommended offer $148,934 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,040
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -14.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-61,453
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-102,704
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32578

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,414/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$493
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,383

Max offer price $148,934

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Westlake Ct Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$1,800	$1.92	44d	1	0.40mi
304 Westlake Ct Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,995	$1.56	44d	1	0.47mi
406 Westlake Ct Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	44d	1	0.50mi
1604 Chadwick Ln Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$2,200	$1.68	21d	1	0.56mi
123 Parkwood Dr Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,250	$1.76	44d	1	0.61mi
4274 Calinda Ln Niceville, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,622	$2.16	13d	1	0.76mi
4276 Calinda Ln Niceville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,900	$1.97	44d	5	0.76mi
4276 Calinda Ln Niceville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$1,700	$1.88	21d	2	0.76mi
4270 Calinda Ln Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	1039	$1,950	$1.88	13d	2	0.78mi
4600 Range Rd Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	725	$1,495	$2.06	44d	1	0.81mi
1871 Shay Lin Ct Niceville, FL	2.0	1.5	998	$1,700	$1.70	44d	1	0.88mi
1856 Shay-Lin Ct Unit B8 Niceville, FL	2.0	2.5	993	$1,700	$1.71	44d	1	0.92mi
300 Yacht Club Dr Niceville, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	13d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $493 · $5,916/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $210,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-03-22
    listed $233,000 Active 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    A quaint and beautiful find in Bluewater Bay in the Garden Oaks Condos. This home is carpet free with tile and laminate floors for easy clean up. It also features 2 bedrooms in a split bedroom style. The family room is extremely comfortable and affords a gracious living area. The screened porch is an extension of a Florida living area environment and provides a great space to enjoy the Florida weather. The kitchen has a pass through window, ample storage area and all of the basic amenities of a kitchen. There is a washer and dryer that will convey with this property.

17. 2020-01-03
    soldstatus $129,000
18. 2017-11-09
    soldstatus $60,000 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    SpaciousUpdatedEnd unitGround floor condo located in the resort community of Bluewater Bay. The large open living room/dining area flows through to the large screened in porch, the perfect place to relax and enjoy your favorite beverage. This larger than normal condo kitchen is open to the living area, includes newer appliances, and a laundry closet complete with full size washer and dryer. The split bedroom floor plan provides added privacy to the tenants. So come on home to Bluewater Bay! Our resort is loaded with additional amenities such as 4 pools (one heated), tennis center, four 9 hole golf courses and additional walking/jogging paths (some of these amenities require membership dues).

19. 2017-11-09
    soldstatus $60,000 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    SpaciousUpdatedEnd unitGround floor condo located in the resort community of Bluewater Bay. The large open living room/dining area flows through to the large screened in porch, the perfect place to relax and enjoy your favorite beverage. This larger than normal condo kitchen is open to the living area, includes newer appliances, and a laundry closet complete with full size washer and dryer. The split bedroom floor plan provides added privacy to the tenants. So come on home to Bluewater Bay! Our resort is loaded with additional amenities such as 4 pools (one heated), tennis center, four 9 hole golf courses and additional walking/jogging paths (some of these amenities require membership dues).

20. 2017-11-09
    soldstatus $60,000

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    SpaciousUpdatedEnd unitGround floor condo located in the resort community of Bluewater Bay. The large open living room/dining area flows through to the large screened in porch, the perfect place to relax and enjoy your favorite beverage. This larger than normal condo kitchen is open to the living area, includes newer appliances, and a laundry closet complete with full size washer and dryer. The split bedroom floor plan provides added privacy to the tenants. So come on home to Bluewater Bay! Our resort is loaded with additional amenities such as 4 pools (one heated), tennis center, four 9 hole golf courses and additional walking/jogging paths (some of these amenities require membership dues).

21. 2017-10-16
    listed $60,000 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    SpaciousUpdatedEnd unitGround floor condo located in the resort community of Bluewater Bay. The large open living room/dining area flows through to the large screened in porch, the perfect place to relax and enjoy your favorite beverage. This larger than normal condo kitchen is open to the living area, includes newer appliances, and a laundry closet complete with full size washer and dryer. The split bedroom floor plan provides added privacy to the tenants. So come on home to Bluewater Bay! Our resort is loaded with additional amenities such as 4 pools (one heated), tennis center, four 9 hole golf courses and additional walking/jogging paths (some of these amenities require membership dues).

22. 2007-03-21
    soldstatus $201,000
23. 2007-03-19
    soldstatus $201,000
24. 2007-03-19
    soldstatus $201,000
25. 2006-08-26
    listed $207,800
26. 2006-08-26
    listed $207,800
27. 2005-08-17
    soldstatus $160,000
28. 1999-05-03
    soldstatus $59,500
29. 1985-03-01
    soldstatus $57,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,414 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,414 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,414
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − HOA: −$5,916
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$7,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,833
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Niceville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #2207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,738
• Household income: $108,972
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.87%
• Current HPI: 498.41
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+303.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $233,000 ECAR
• 2020-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-09 Sold (MLS) $60,000 NAMLS
• 2017-11-09 Sold (MLS) $60,000 ECAR
• 2017-10-16 Listed $60,000 NAMLS
• 2007-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $201,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-19 Sold (MLS) $201,000 ECAR
• 2007-03-19 Sold (MLS) $201,000 NAMLS
• 2006-08-26 Listed $207,800 ECAR
• 2006-08-26 Listed $207,800 NAMLS
• 2005-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $59,500 Public Records
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,414 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.