2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,048 sqft ·
Built 1990
· Condo
· Active
· 97 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,769/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,390
Tax + insurance
−$470
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$581
Net cashflow
$327/mo
Annual
$3,926/yr
Cap rate
7.77%
Cash-on-cash
5.29%
DSCR
1.24
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$74,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $241k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#343 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, housing D+, crime F.
Newark Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #452 of 472 in NJ (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $64k; list at $265k implies a 316% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.0% in Newark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-81MDWAER516HMM
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29