11640 N 51st Ave #137

Glendale, AZ 85304

$176,500D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 865 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,588/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$926
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$375
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-155/mo
• Annual: $-1,861/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $49,420

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $176k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (10.0% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AZ, #3,235 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Glendale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.