11640 N 51st Ave #137 · Glendale, AZ 85304

$176,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 865 sqft · Condo public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1984 $204/sqft · 13% below area Est $202k · 13% under $375/mo HOA · 24% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect fusion of comfort and convenience in this remodeled unit. This unique open-concept ground-floor unit provides an inviting atmosphere that immediately feels like home. Step into a living space featuring an updated kitchen complete with sleek countertops and new appliances. The seamless flow from the kitchen to the living room, accentuated by a charming fireplace, creates a warm and welcoming environment for relaxation. Each bedroom has ample space. Welcome to your next chapter in Glendale, where comfort awaits.

Key facts

• $375 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $176k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Glendale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AZ, #3,235 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,104 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,011
• List price: $176,500
• Delta: -12.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-42,992
• Equity at exit: $26,317

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-67,572
• Equity at exit: $15,260

Cash invested: $49,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85304

• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$926
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $429/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,785

Max offer price $149,104

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-105	+0% $-155	+5% $-205	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-218	+0% $-155	+5% $-92	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-66	-0.5pp $-110	base $-155	+0.5pp $-201	+1.0pp $-247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,125
• Closing costs: $5,295
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11640 N 51st Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0	2.0	865	$1,400	$1.62	6d	2	0.03mi
11640 N 51st Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0	2.0	865	$1,422	$1.64	25d	2	0.03mi
11640 N 51st Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0	2.0	865	$1,422	$1.64	44d	3	0.03mi
5020 W Peoria Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	670	$1,531	$2.28	2d	10	0.63mi
5236 W Peoria Ave #140 Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.0	891	$1,099	$1.23	13d	1	0.70mi
5326 W Peoria Ave Unit 111 Glendale, AZ	2.0	2.0	974	$1,500	$1.54	3d	1	0.73mi
5023 W Peoria Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,577	$2.64	2d	1	0.76mi
5150 W Eugie Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,415	$2.02	2d	23	1.13mi
13610 N 51st Ave Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	652	$1,599	$2.45	2d	12	1.18mi
10851 N 43rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$1,690	$2.17	2d	9	1.20mi
10201 N 44th Dr Glendale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	670	$1,440	$2.15	2d	13	1.20mi
5205 W Thunderbird Rd Glendale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,439	$1.74	3d	30	1.23mi
10654 N 60th Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	732	$1,475	$2.01	2d	27	1.33mi
5757 W Eugie Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	774	$1,395	$1.80	4d	5	1.37mi
5757 W Eugie Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	767	$1,395	$1.82	3d	6	1.37mi
5757 W Eugie Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	767	$1,495	$1.95	15d	5	1.37mi
4040 W Peoria Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	715	$1,330	$1.86	2d	25	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $176,500 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $176,500 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $176,500 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $176,500 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $176,500 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $176,500 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $176,500 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-04-13
   listed $176,500 Active 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Discover the perfect fusion of comfort and convenience in this remodeled unit. This unique open-concept ground-floor unit provides an inviting atmosphere that immediately feels like home. Step into a living space featuring an updated kitchen complete with sleek countertops and new appliances. The seamless flow from the kitchen to the living room, accentuated by a charming fireplace, creates a warm and welcoming environment for relaxation. Each bedroom has ample space. Welcome to your next chapter in Glendale, where comfort awaits.

9. 2025-12-16
   historical
10. 2025-07-19
    listed $184,900 Active
11. 2023-02-02
    soldstatus $157,000 Closed
12. 2023-01-23
    status Pending
13. 2023-01-09
    price $200,000
14. 2022-11-01
    price $224,900
15. 2022-09-17
    listed $229,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $429 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,165 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$736/yr (+$61/mo · 171.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,887
• − Property taxes: −$429
• − Insurance: −$882
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,135
• Taxable loss: −$4,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,157
• After-tax cash flow: $-704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Glendale

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3235

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Glendale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 294,586
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 29,861
• Household income: $86,927
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 640.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.68%
• Current HPI: 310.0679
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.30%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-23.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $176,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-19 Listed $184,900 ARMLS
• 2023-02-02 Sold (MLS) $157,000 ARMLS
• 2023-01-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-01-09 Price Changed $200,000 ARMLS
• 2022-11-01 Price Changed $224,900 ARMLS
• 2022-09-17 Listed $229,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $429 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.