3010 Winston Dr #67

Burlington, NC 27215

$145,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2003 · Condo · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$299
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-257/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-257/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (2.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $141k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#123 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southern Alamance Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #238 of 475 statewide, top 51%, 685 students, 49% FRL); Southern Alamance High (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B-, #199 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,360 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alamance-Burlington Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.