3010 Winston Dr #67 · Burlington, NC 27215

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Condo public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2003 $299/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hidden Gem in Windermere - First Floor Living! Welcome home to this first-floor condo located in the Windermere community, offering the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and low-maintenance living. Ideally located just off Interstate 40, commuting to the Research Triangle or the Piedmont Triad is quick and convenient. Step inside to find 3 spacious bedrooms with generous storage throughout. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a large walk-in closet and a relaxing garden tub--perfect for unwinding after a long day. You'll also appreciate the oversized laundry room and multiple additional storage closets. The bright and inviting living room features a cozy gas fireplace

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Relaxing garden tub
• Private patio

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LIVING
• PRIVATE PATIO
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• RELAXING GARDEN TUB
• OVERSIZED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-257/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (2.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#123 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southern Alamance Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #238 of 475 statewide, top 51%, 685 students, 49% FRL); Southern Alamance High (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B-, #199 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,360 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alamance-Burlington Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,220 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-25,290
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-25,533
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27215

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,566 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,664/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$299
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,593

Max offer price $141,220

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $20	+0% $-21	+5% $-62	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-83	+0% $-21	+5% $40	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $15	base $-21	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2802 Eldermont St Unit 2804-B Burlington, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,395	$1.16	23d	1	0.86mi
511 Alamance Rd Burlington, NC	3.0	1.0	1399	$1,495	$1.07	15d	1	0.89mi
185 Rosewood Loop Burlington, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,732	$1.80	23d	9	1.00mi
2978 Ethan Pointe Dr Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1130	$1,583	$1.40	15d	16	1.01mi
3551 Forestdale Dr Burlington, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	718	$1,630	$2.27	15d	13	1.13mi
2008 S Mebane St Burlington, NC	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1121	$1,499	$1.34	23d	1	1.24mi
2497 Ashton Park Ln Unit 1 Burlington, NC	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	15d	1	1.38mi
2495 Ashton Park Ln Burlington, NC	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	23d	1	1.39mi
750 Boone Station Dr Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1193	$1,699	$1.42	23d	12	1.40mi
2484 Ashton Park Ln Burlington, NC	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	15d	1	1.41mi
3102 Commerce Pl Burlington, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,227	$1.40	15d	7	1.46mi
2408 Ashton Park Ln Burlington, NC	2.0	2.0	939	$1,195	$1.27	15d	1	1.49mi
2408 Ashton Park Ln Burlington, NC	2.0	2.0	939	$1,195	$1.27	23d	1	1.49mi
2408 Ashton Park Ln Unit 1 Burlington, NC	2.0	2.0	939	$1,250	$1.33	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $299 · $3,588/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,664 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,664 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,664
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,503
• − Management: −$1,503
• − HOA: −$3,588
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$608
• After-tax cash flow: $351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #7396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, NC
• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• City population: 88,508
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,102
• Household income: $68,825
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1497.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.87%
• Current HPI: 224.3392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $145,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,664 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.