222 Main St

Germantown, NY 12526

$995,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Built 1860 · SingleFamily · Pending · 350 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax + insurance: −$999
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,310
• Net cashflow: $2,473/mo
• Annual: $29,680/yr
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.65%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $278,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $995k).
• It's been on market 350 days — a 12% lower offer ($876k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $876k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $106k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $100k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#441 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #387 of 755 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Germantown Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 276 students, 41% FRL); Germantown Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #905 of 1,100 statewide, top 83%, 209 students, 42% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $155k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $350k; list at $995k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $279k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$171k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 350 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.