222 Main St · Germantown, NY 12526

$995,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 350 Days on market

Built 1860 0.25 ac lot Est $750k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

A chic, mixed use commercial/residential building in the center of Germantown, a small and darling Hudson Valley town. A sought after location due to its proximity to both Rhinebeck and Hudson, Germantown is known for its pastoral landscape of rolling hillsides and bucolic farmland and a notable collection of shops and restaurants. Built as a carriage house c1860, the building has retained the charm of an old farmhouse with wideboard plank floors and beautifully redone plaster walls. The first floor was most recently used as a retail space, but is flexible in that there is a first floor kitchen set off to the side separate but easily integrated into the space should one want to open a cafe or restaurant. The space could be an inspiring studio space or beautiful retail shop, etc etc. Upstairs there is a lovely 2BR 1Ba apartment with vaulted ceilings and a gorgeous amount of natural light, perfect as a live/work situation. An attached, raw barn leaves endless options and possibility for the next steward, the building is flexible in its use and excellent in its location. 2h north of NYC, 15m to Hudson and 15m to Rhinebeck. Zoned for commercial or residential use.

Key facts

• Pastoral landscape
• First floor kitchen
• Attached raw barn

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR KITCHEN
• ATTACHED RAW BARN
• PASTORAL LANDSCAPE
• NOTABLE COLLECTION OF SHOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $995k).
• Recommended offer: $876k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#441 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #387 of 755 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $106k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $100k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $279k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$171k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 350 days — a 12% lower offer ($876k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $155k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $350k; list at $995k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $875,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 350 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.65%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $749,760
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Church Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,847 (-12%)	1mo	$655,000	$355	66
23 Underhill Lane Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,400 (+14%)	16mo	$420,000	$175	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $699,194
• Equity at exit: $896,375

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.94×
• Total profit: $1,934,654
• Equity at exit: $1,933,066

Cash invested: $278,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12526

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax from tax record: −$584 /mo · $7,010/yr
• Insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,310
• Net cashflow: $2,473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,869

Max offer price $995,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,037	-5% $2,755	+0% $2,473	+5% $2,192	+10% $1,910
Rent	-10% $1,604	-5% $2,039	+0% $2,473	+5% $2,908	+10% $3,342
Rate	-1.0pp $2,974	-0.5pp $2,726	base $2,473	+0.5pp $2,216	+1.0pp $1,953

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $248,750
• Closing costs: $29,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 E Camp Rd Germantown, NY	3.0	2.0	2624	$11,000	$4.19	22d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1178 chars)

   A chic, mixed use commercial/residential building in the center of Germantown, a small and darling Hudson Valley town. A sought after location due to its proximity to both Rhinebeck and Hudson, Germantown is known for its pastoral landscape of rolling hillsides and bucolic farmland and a notable collection of shops and restaurants. Built as a carriage house c1860, the building has retained the charm of an old farmhouse with wideboard plank floors and beautifully redone plaster walls. The first floor was most recently used as a retail space, but is flexible in that there is a first floor kitchen set off to the side separate but easily integrated into the space should one want to open a cafe or restaurant. The space could be an inspiring studio space or beautiful retail shop, etc etc. Upstairs there is a lovely 2BR 1Ba apartment with vaulted ceilings and a gorgeous amount of natural light, perfect as a live/work situation. An attached, raw barn leaves endless options and possibility for the next steward, the building is flexible in its use and excellent in its location. 2h north of NYC, 15m to Hudson and 15m to Rhinebeck. Zoned for commercial or residential use.

2. 2026-04-24
   status Pending 1178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1178 chars)

   A chic, mixed use commercial/residential building in the center of Germantown, a small and darling Hudson Valley town. A sought after location due to its proximity to both Rhinebeck and Hudson, Germantown is known for its pastoral landscape of rolling hillsides and bucolic farmland and a notable collection of shops and restaurants. Built as a carriage house c1860, the building has retained the charm of an old farmhouse with wideboard plank floors and beautifully redone plaster walls. The first floor was most recently used as a retail space, but is flexible in that there is a first floor kitchen set off to the side separate but easily integrated into the space should one want to open a cafe or restaurant. The space could be an inspiring studio space or beautiful retail shop, etc etc. Upstairs there is a lovely 2BR 1Ba apartment with vaulted ceilings and a gorgeous amount of natural light, perfect as a live/work situation. An attached, raw barn leaves endless options and possibility for the next steward, the building is flexible in its use and excellent in its location. 2h north of NYC, 15m to Hudson and 15m to Rhinebeck. Zoned for commercial or residential use.

3. 2025-06-06
   price $995,000

   Show marketing remark (1178 chars)

   A chic, mixed use commercial/residential building in the center of Germantown, a small and darling Hudson Valley town. A sought after location due to its proximity to both Rhinebeck and Hudson, Germantown is known for its pastoral landscape of rolling hillsides and bucolic farmland and a notable collection of shops and restaurants. Built as a carriage house c1860, the building has retained the charm of an old farmhouse with wideboard plank floors and beautifully redone plaster walls. The first floor was most recently used as a retail space, but is flexible in that there is a first floor kitchen set off to the side separate but easily integrated into the space should one want to open a cafe or restaurant. The space could be an inspiring studio space or beautiful retail shop, etc etc. Upstairs there is a lovely 2BR 1Ba apartment with vaulted ceilings and a gorgeous amount of natural light, perfect as a live/work situation. An attached, raw barn leaves endless options and possibility for the next steward, the building is flexible in its use and excellent in its location. 2h north of NYC, 15m to Hudson and 15m to Rhinebeck. Zoned for commercial or residential use.

4. 2025-06-06
   price $995,000 1178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1178 chars)

   A chic, mixed use commercial/residential building in the center of Germantown, a small and darling Hudson Valley town. A sought after location due to its proximity to both Rhinebeck and Hudson, Germantown is known for its pastoral landscape of rolling hillsides and bucolic farmland and a notable collection of shops and restaurants. Built as a carriage house c1860, the building has retained the charm of an old farmhouse with wideboard plank floors and beautifully redone plaster walls. The first floor was most recently used as a retail space, but is flexible in that there is a first floor kitchen set off to the side separate but easily integrated into the space should one want to open a cafe or restaurant. The space could be an inspiring studio space or beautiful retail shop, etc etc. Upstairs there is a lovely 2BR 1Ba apartment with vaulted ceilings and a gorgeous amount of natural light, perfect as a live/work situation. An attached, raw barn leaves endless options and possibility for the next steward, the building is flexible in its use and excellent in its location. 2h north of NYC, 15m to Hudson and 15m to Rhinebeck. Zoned for commercial or residential use.

5. 2025-03-13
   listed $1,150,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1178 chars)

   A chic, mixed use commercial/residential building in the center of Germantown, a small and darling Hudson Valley town. A sought after location due to its proximity to both Rhinebeck and Hudson, Germantown is known for its pastoral landscape of rolling hillsides and bucolic farmland and a notable collection of shops and restaurants. Built as a carriage house c1860, the building has retained the charm of an old farmhouse with wideboard plank floors and beautifully redone plaster walls. The first floor was most recently used as a retail space, but is flexible in that there is a first floor kitchen set off to the side separate but easily integrated into the space should one want to open a cafe or restaurant. The space could be an inspiring studio space or beautiful retail shop, etc etc. Upstairs there is a lovely 2BR 1Ba apartment with vaulted ceilings and a gorgeous amount of natural light, perfect as a live/work situation. An attached, raw barn leaves endless options and possibility for the next steward, the building is flexible in its use and excellent in its location. 2h north of NYC, 15m to Hudson and 15m to Rhinebeck. Zoned for commercial or residential use.

6. 2025-03-13
   listed $1,150,000 Active 1178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1178 chars)

   A chic, mixed use commercial/residential building in the center of Germantown, a small and darling Hudson Valley town. A sought after location due to its proximity to both Rhinebeck and Hudson, Germantown is known for its pastoral landscape of rolling hillsides and bucolic farmland and a notable collection of shops and restaurants. Built as a carriage house c1860, the building has retained the charm of an old farmhouse with wideboard plank floors and beautifully redone plaster walls. The first floor was most recently used as a retail space, but is flexible in that there is a first floor kitchen set off to the side separate but easily integrated into the space should one want to open a cafe or restaurant. The space could be an inspiring studio space or beautiful retail shop, etc etc. Upstairs there is a lovely 2BR 1Ba apartment with vaulted ceilings and a gorgeous amount of natural light, perfect as a live/work situation. An attached, raw barn leaves endless options and possibility for the next steward, the building is flexible in its use and excellent in its location. 2h north of NYC, 15m to Hudson and 15m to Rhinebeck. Zoned for commercial or residential use.

7. 2024-08-14
   listed $1,245,000
8. 2024-02-02
   historical
9. 2016-07-05
   soldstatus $350,000
10. 2012-09-28
    listed $289,000
11. 2012-08-05
    historical
12. 2012-02-05
    listed $289,000
13. 2004-07-06
    soldstatus $225,000
14. 2002-03-04
    soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,010 · $584/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,913 · $993/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,903/yr (+$409/mo · 69.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $132,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,735
• − Property taxes: −$7,010
• − Insurance: −$4,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,560
• − Management: −$10,560
• − Depreciation: −$28,945
• Taxable income: $14,214
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,411
• After-tax cash flow: $26,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612030
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,242
• Composite: 47.76/100
• National rank: #4894
• State rank: #387 of 755 in NY

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #7728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,427

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.93%
• Current HPI: 511.9627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+665.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $995,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $995,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $1,150,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $1,150,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-08-14 Listed $1,245,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-02-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-28 Listed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-05 Listed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,010 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.