10920 Thielen St

St. John, IN 46373

$385,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · Built 1956 · MultiFamily · Pending · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$626
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,405/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.30%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $320k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Central School Corporation (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in IN (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $146k; list at $385k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in St. John — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.